000 AXNT20 KNHC 041802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Sept 04 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Earl, at 04/1500 UTC, is near 19.5N 64.4W, or about 115 km/61 nm to the NE of the Northern Leeward Islands. Earl is moving NW, or 310 degrees, 03 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Tropical storm force winds are within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 20 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, and within 40 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights are reaching 12 feet within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within 150 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 12 feet from 18N to 26N between 57W and 70W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 180 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle, and within 60 nm of the center in the western semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. The center of Hurricane Danielle, at 04/1500 UTC, is near 38.1N 45.3W. Danielle is moving W or 270 degrees 01 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 70 knots with gusts to 85 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 150 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere within 180 nm of the center. Please, read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22W, from 21N southward, moving westward about from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is within 150 nm to the east of the tropical wave from 12N to 17N. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N to 16N from 26W eastward. It is possible that an area of low pressure may form later this week. Subsequent gradual development is possible as this system moves generally west-northwestward, in the east-central tropical Atlantic Ocean. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/37W, from 26N southward, moving westward 15 knots. A 1010 mb low pressure center is along the tropical wave near 22N. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 550 nm to the NE of the 1010 mb low pressure center, and within 400 nm to the east of the tropical wave, from the monsoon trough to 20N. Scattered moderate to strong is from 29N northward between 35W and 39W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Senegal and Mauritania, to 14N28W, to 11N36W. The ITCZ is along 10N38W 09N50W 09N57W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 200 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 30W and 62W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation, are in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The GFS model for 500 mb, and for 700 mb, shows a trough along the Texas coast. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 150 nm of the U.S.A. Gulf coast, from the Deep South of Texas to the coast of Mississippi. A separate surface trough, and isolated moderate to locally strong convective precipitation, are in the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A weak surface pressure gradient supports moderate E to SE winds in the SW corner of the area, and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 5 feet in the SW half of the area, and they range from 1 foot to 3 feet in the NE half of the area. Weak high pressure will reside across the northern Gulf through Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across southern portions today, then diminish to gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas thereafter. Winds will freshen at night over portions of the SW Gulf through Tue night due to the diurnal trough developing each afternoon over the Yucatan peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level cyclonic circulation is about 225 nm to the W of Jamaica, near 19N82W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the areas that are from 14N in the Caribbean Sea to 24N in the Atlantic Ocean, in the Straits of Florida, and in the SE Gulf of Mexico, between Hispaniola and 90W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the area of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. The wind speeds are mainly gentle to moderate. Sea heights to 4 feet cover the area. The monsoon trough is along 11N75W near Colombia, to 08N81W in Panama, beyond southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 14N southward from 74W westward. Gentle to moderate winds in the western half of the Caribbean will diminish to light to gentle early this evening and then prevail through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds will develop in the eastern half of the Caribbean Sea this evening, and persist through the end of the forecast period. Tropical Storm Earl is near 19.5N 64.4W 999 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Earl will move NNW to N and slowly intensify through Mon, reaching near 21.5N 65.2W Mon morning, near 23.5N 65.5W Tue morning as a hurricane, then continue moving NNE at around 5 kt through Sat while expanding in size as well as strengthening. Lines of heavy showers and thunderstorms associated with Earl will impact the NE Caribbean Sea through Mon night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is along the Florida east coast from 25N to 29N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from the NW Bahamas northward from 75W westward. A surface trough is along 67W/68W, that extends southwestward, from a 1015 mb 32N67W low pressure center, to 26N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 27N between 50W and 75W. The subtropical Atlantic Ocean is under the influence of a broad ridge, that is supporting gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas. The exception is in the the far NE Atlantic Ocean, with fresh NE to E winds, and sea heights that are reaching 6 feet. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes are from 25N southward from 60W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 22N northward from 20W eastward. Moderate or weaker winds cover the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The sea heights range from 4 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the area from 70W eastward. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 4 feet from 20N northward from 70W westward. Tropical Storm Earl is near 19.5N 64.4W 999 mb at 11 AM EDT moving NW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Earl will move NNW to N and gradually intensify through Mon, reaching near 21.5N 65.2W Mon morning, near 23.5N 65.5W Tue morning as a hurricane, reach near 25.7N 65W Wed morning, near 27.2N 64W Thu morning, then near 29.6N 61.8W Fri morning before exiting the region to the north Sat. Earl will expand in size as well as continue to strengthen Wed through Fri. Elsewhere weak high pressure will prevail to the NW and W of Earl. $$ mt