000 AXNT20 KNHC 041050 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Sep 4 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 19.5N 64.9W at 04/0900 UTC or 70 nm N of St. Thomas moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 35N to 41N between 43W and 48W. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass to the north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today, and then move away from the islands tonight and Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. Hurricane Danielle is centered near 38.1N 45.2W at 04/0900 UTC or 860 nm W of the Azores moving N at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 17N to 22N between 59W and 65W. The hurricane is expected to begin a slow motion toward the north today. A slightly faster northeastward motion is forecast to begin tonight and continue during the next couple of days. Some gradual strengthening is forecast through Monday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 35W, from 14N to 26N, moving westward at 15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is along the wave near 22.0N. Scattered moderate convection is from 21N to 26Nz between 31W and 38W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extend from 17N16W to 13N30W to 09N38W. The ITCZ begins near 09N38W and continues to 09N54W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm south of both the monsoon and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A few showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail in the far NW and NE gulf waters while a surface trough just offshore Veracruz is generating scattered showers and tstms in the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient continue to support moderate E to SE winds in the SW gulf and light to gentle variable winds elsewhere. For the forecast, weak high pressure will reside across the northern Gulf through Tue. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across southern portions through early Sun, then diminish to gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas thereafter. Winds will freshen at night over portions of the SW Gulf through Tue night due to the diurnal trough developing each afternoon over the Yucatan peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Most of the storm activity related to Tropical Storm Earl is outside of the Caribbean Sea, however, a few showers are seen in the extreme NE portion of the basin. Heavy showers and tstms are occurring in the offshores between Panama and Colombia and also in the Costa Rica adjacent waters. Otherwise, an upper level low continue to support scattered showers between Cuba and Jamaica. In terms of winds and seas, mainly gentle to moderate winds and seas to 4 ft dominate the region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds in the western half of the Caribbean will diminish to light to gentle early this evening and then prevail through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds will develop over the eastern half of the Caribbean this evening and persist through the end of the forecast period. Otherwise, Tropical Storm Earl is near 19.5N 64.9W 999 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Earl will move to 20.1N 65.6W this afternoon, 21.1N 66.2W Mon morning, 22.0N 66.5W Mon afternoon, 23.0N 66.6W Tue morning, 24.0N 66.7W Tue afternoon, and 25.0N 66.5W Wed morning. Earl will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.5N 65.5W early Thu. Active weather associated with Earl is expected to impact the NE Caribbean through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Earl, located NE of the Virgin Islands. Aside from Earl, the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge that is supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas, except over the far NE Atlantic where fresh NE to E winds dominate with seas to 6 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Earl near 19.5N 64.9W 999 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt. Earl will move to 20.1N 65.6W this afternoon, 21.1N 66.2W Mon morning, 22.0N 66.5W Mon afternoon, 23.0N 66.6W Tue morning, 24.0N 66.7W Tue afternoon, and 25.0N 66.5W Wed morning. Earl will strengthen to a hurricane near 26.5N 65.5W early Thu. $$ Ramos