000 AXNT20 KNHC 031102 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Sep 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Danielle is centered near 38.0N 43.8W at 03/0900 UTC or 800 nm W of the Azores moving W at 1 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 32N to 40N between 37W and 47W. A westward drift is expected today and Sunday, followed by a northward drift on Monday. Little change in strength is expected today. Some slight strengthening is expected tonight through Monday, and Danielle could regain hurricane strength on Sunday. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 18.7N 61.4W at 03/0900 UTC or 100 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Strong westerly shear is displacing the storm activity to the east of the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 16N to 20N between 57W and 61W. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass near or north of the northern Leeward Islands today, and north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Sunday. Slow strengthening is possible during the next few of days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 30W, with a low pressure of 1010 mb near 20N and it is moving W at 15 kt. The disturbance is moving over cooler temperatures and an stable environment, resulting in little convection in the NE semicircle. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 19N16W to 16N23W to 20N29W to 08N41W. The ITCZ then extends from 08N41W to 10N54W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 16W and 22W, and from 06N to 15N between 50W and 57W. GULF OF MEXICO... The Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions, except for the continuation of scattered showers and tstsm in the western Bay of Campeche due to a surface trough that is approaching the region of Veracruz this morning. A weak high pressure of 1018 mb is located over the NE Gulf and the moderate pressure gradient due to lower pressures over Mexico sustain moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds over the SW Gulf. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through early next week maintaining gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh nightly over portions of the SW Gulf through Sat night due to the diurnal trough developing each afternoon over the Yucatan peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Earl located east of the northern Leeward Islands. An upper level low centered just south of Cuba is producing a few showers in the lee of the island and into the Windward Passage. Farther south, the E Pacific monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica to NW Colombia and it is helping to generate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters of SE Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Moisture associated with Earl is inducing a few showers over the NE Caribbean Sea, affecting some of the islands and offshore waters of the Leeward Islands. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trades are found in the central and NW Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage. The strongest winds are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle trades and seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern seaboard of the U.S. will support moderate to fresh trades across the central and NW basin through Sat. Afterward, gentle to moderate winds will dominate through Wed. Tropical Storm Earl near 18.7N 61.4W 1005 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Earl will move to 19.2N 62.8W this afternoon, 19.9N 64.5W Sun morning, 20.6N 65.6W Sun afternoon, 21.2N 66.4W Mon morning, 21.8N 67.0W Mon afternoon, and 22.6N 67.2W Tue morning. Earl will change little in intensity as it moves near 24.0N 67.0W early Wed. Active weather associated with Earl is expected to impact the NE Caribbean through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Earl located east of the northern Leeward Islands. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge with a couple centers of high pressure. A weak surface trough enters the western tropical Atlantic near 31N63W and extends southwestward to 28N74W, producing a few shallow showers near the trough axis. The rest of the basin, aside from the storm activity in the deep tropics, enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes prevail S of 25N and W of 60W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. N of 25N and W of 60W, light to moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent. Fresh to strong NE winds are also present N of 22N and E of 20W, along with seas of 3-6 ft. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are evident. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Earl near 18.7N 61.4W 1005 mb at 5 AM EDT moving WNW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Earl will move to 19.2N 62.8W this afternoon, 19.9N 64.5W Sun morning, 20.6N 65.6W Sun afternoon, 21.2N 66.4W Mon morning, 21.8N 67.0W Mon afternoon, and 22.6N 67.2W Tue morning. Earl will change little in intensity as it moves near 24.0N 67.0W early Wed. $$ Ramos