000 AXNT20 KNHC 030357 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Sep 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Danielle is centered near 37.9N 43.5W at 03/0300 UTC or 780 nm W of the Azores. The hurricane is stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring within 200 nm of the center, especially in the eastern semicircle. The strongest convection is found within 45 nm of the center. Danielle is forecast to drift generally westward through early Sunday, then northward by Monday. Some slight strengthening is forecast during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Tropical Storm Earl is centered near 18.4N 60.3W at 03/0300 UTC or 160 nm E of the Leeward Islands. The tropical storm is moving to the WNW at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Strong westerly shear is displacing the storm activity to the east of the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present within 270 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle. A decrease in forward speed is expected through early Sunday. A turn toward the northwest with an additional decrease in forward speed is expected Sunday through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Earl is expected to pass near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Saturday, and north of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Saturday night and Sunday. Some slight strengthening is possible during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 30W, with a low pressure of 1010 mb near 20N. It is moving W at 15 kt. The disturbance is moving over cooler temperatures and an stable environment, resulting in little to no convection near the low pressure or along the wave. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to fresh easterly winds are occurring in the northern quadrant, primarily from 20N to 27N and between 25W and 36W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 16N22W in the Cabo Verde Islands to a 1010 mb low pres near 20N30W to 08N41W. The ITCZ then extends from 08N41W to 08N50W to 15N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 41W and 57W. GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers dot the northern Gulf of Mexico and Bay of Campeche as evening storms over the nearby landmasses expand into the nearshore and offshore waters. The rest of the Gulf enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. A weak high pressure of 1017 mb is located over the NE Gulf and the moderate pressure gradient due to lower pressures over Mexico sustain fresh to locally fresh easterly winds over the SW Gulf, primarily S of 25N and W of 88W, as shown by recent satellite-derived wind data. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through early next week maintaining gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh nightly over portions of the SW Gulf through Sat night due to the diurnal trough developing each afternoon over the Yucatan peninsula. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Earl located east of the northern Leeward Islands. An upper level low centered just south of Cuba is producing a few showers in the lee of the island and into the Windward Passage. Farther south, the E Pacific monsoon trough extends from Costa Rica to NW Colombia and it is helping to generate a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the offshore waters of SE Nicaragua, Costa Rica and Panama. Moisture associated with Earl is inducing a few showers over the NE Caribbean Sea, affecting some of the islands and offshore waters of the Leeward Islands. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trades are found in the central and NW Caribbean Sea, including the Windward Passage. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict the strongest winds occurring in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle trades and seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, high pressure across the eastern seaboard of the U.S. will support moderate to fresh trades across the central and NW basin through Sat. Afterward, gentle to moderate winds will dominate through Wed. Tropical Storm Earl near 18.4N 60.3W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Earl will move to 18.9N 62.0W Sat morning, 19.5N 63.8W Sat evening, 20.2N 65.3W Sun morning, 20.9N 66.4W Sun evening, 21.5N 67.2W Mon morning, and 22.2N 67.7W Mon evening. Earl will change little in intensity as it moves near 23.3N 67.8W late Tue. Active weather associated with Earl is expected to impact the NE Caribbean through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Earl located east of the northern Leeward Islands. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad ridge with a couple centers of high pressure of 1022 mb near 35N53W and 1021 mb near 33N18W. A weak surface trough enters the western tropical Atlantic near 31N65W and extends southwestward to 29N75W, producing a few shallow showers near the trough axis. The rest of the basin, aside from the storm activity in the deep tropics, enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes prevail S of 25N and W of 60W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. N of 25N and W of 60W, light to moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent. Fresh to strong NE winds are also present N of 22N and E of 20W, along with seas of 3-6 ft. In the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-5 ft are evident. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Earl near 18.4N 60.3W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt. Earl will move to 18.9N 62.0W Sat morning, 19.5N 63.8W Sat evening, 20.2N 65.3W Sun morning, 20.9N 66.4W Sun evening, 21.5N 67.2W Mon morning, and 22.2N 67.7W Mon evening. Earl will change little in intensity as it moves near 23.3N 67.8W late Tue. $$ DELGADO