840 AXNT20 KNHC 021100 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Sep 2 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Danielle is centered near 37.9N 43.4W at 02/0900 UTC or 770 nm W of the Azores moving E at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous moderate convection is from 37N to 39N between 35W and 45W. The storm is forecast to meander over the open Atlantic during the next couple of days. Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Danielle is forecast to become a hurricane later this morning. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. East of the Leeward Islands: A broad area of low pressure of 1008 mb is located along a tropical wave several hundred nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles near 17N56W. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, any additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is expected to move slowly west-northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains may occur over portions of the Leeward Islands during the next couple of days, and interests in that area should monitor the progress of the system. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 27W, from 08N to 23N, moving W at 10-15 kt. A low pressure of 1006 mb is along the wave near 19N. This system is moving into an area of less favorable environmental conditions, and significant development is not anticipated. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon extends from 18N16W to 20N25W to 11N45W to 17N56W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 10N and between 30W and 47W, and from 06N to 14N between 48W and 60W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure continues to dominate the Gulf of Mexico supporting mainly light to gentle return flow with seas in the 1-2 ft range, except in the south-central Gulf where a thermal trough enhances the winds to moderate to fresh speeds with seas to 4 ft. Otherwise, a middle level trough supports an area of showers and tstms in the Louisiana coastal waters while upper level divergence supports similar shower activity in the NE basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse nightly over portions of the SW Gulf through Sat night due to a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through early next week maintaining gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... An elongated upper level low over Hispaniola and Cuba is generating scattered showers and tstms in the Windward Passage. Similar shower activity is being enhanced by the E Pacific monsoon trough in the SW basin and off the coast of Belize by a tropical wave. Otherwise, moderate NE to E winds remain in the central Caribbean between 70W and 80W with seas to 3 ft. In the far NW basin, moderate to fresh SE winds prevail. For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trades across the central and NW basin, including the Mona Passage through Sat. Afterward, gentle to moderate winds will dominate these regions through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features and Tropical Waves section above for more information on tropical disturbances in the Atlantic with potential for tropical cyclone development. A weak high pressure over the western tropical Atlantic maintains generally tranquil conditions across the area. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds are noted S of 23N and W of 60W, along with seas of 2-4 ft. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft prevail N of 23N. A surface trough stretches from 31N59W to 25N62W and a few shallow showers are present near the trough axis. For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have recently decreased in coverage. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, any additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west- northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through early next week. $$ Ramos