000 AXNT20 KNHC 010909 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Sep 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently developed Tropical Depression Five is centered near 38.1N 45.0W at 01/0900 UTC or 850 nm W of the Azores moving ENE at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1013 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 45 nm n quadrant and 120 nm se semicircle of the system center. The system is forecast to meander for the next few days while intensifying. The system is expected to reach tropical storm intensity today, and hurricane intensity Fri night. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for more details. Central Tropical Atlantic: A 1008 mb area of low pressure is located several hundred nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near 16N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 12N to 20N between 48W and 55W. Similar convection is also found from 06N to 10N and between 50W and 55W. Fresh to strong winds are occurring in the northern and eastern quadrants of the low. Seas are peaking near 9 ft. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, any additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly west- northwestward, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance over the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A broad 1006 mb area of low pressure located over and to the north of the Cabo Verde Islands near 17N22.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 22W and 27W. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 5-8 ft are in the vicinity of the low. While surface observations indicate pressures are low in this area, the associated shower activity is currently poorly organized. There is still a potential for the system to become a short-lived tropical depression within the next day or so before environmental conditions become unfavorable for further development. Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands today and tonight. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and also over the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A NW Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 87W, south of 21N, drifting W, very slowly at 5 kt or less. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found over the NW Caribbean. The wave is also helping to enhance showers and thunderstorms over Central America. A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave has its axis near 95W, south of 21N, across southern Mexico and into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving W around 5 kt. Nearby convection is confined to land and over the Gulf of Tehuantepec in the Pacific. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N17W to a 1006 mb low pres near 17N22.5W to 11N36W to a 1008 mb low pres near 16N52W. Aside from convection noted in the special features section above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 10N between 25W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the Florida panhandle to the central Gulf near 25N91W. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle winds are over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse over the SW Gulf Fri and Sat night due to a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan. Elsewhere, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the early next week maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong trade winds are noted in the south central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 3-4 ft in the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trades across the S central Caribbean through Fri. SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will reach moderate to fresh speeds Thu through Fri night. Elsewhere, slight winds and seas will prevail. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on two areas of low pressure with the potential to develop into a tropical cyclone. A 1018 mb high pressure area is centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are around the high center, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere north of 20N and west of 55W. Seas are in the 3-4 ft range west of 60W, and 4-6 ft elsewhere north of 20N and west of 55W. Elsewhere north of 20N, Gentle to moderate winds prevail, with locally fresh winds north of the two areas of low pressure in the special features section above. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range. South of 20N and outside the two areas of low pressure discussed in the special features section above, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands have gradually increased in organization over the past day or so. Although environmental conditions remain only marginally conducive, only slight additional development of the system over the next few days would lead to the formation of a tropical depression. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest, reaching the far SE forecast waters west of 55W today. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through early next week. $$ AL