000 AXNT20 KNHC 311606 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Aug 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America, Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1008 mb low pressure located several hundred nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near 15N51W, is along a tropical wave, moving W at around 5 kt. This system is producing a large area of numerous moderate with isolated strong convection from 14N to 17N between 48W and 51W. Fresh to strong winds are noted in the northern semi-circle. Seas are peaking near 10 ft north of the low. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance over the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. A broad 1009 mb low pressure located between the west coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands near 19N20W is along a tropical wave, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 15N to 22N, between the coast of Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Some gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days. By late this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development. Regardless, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a medium chance over the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. A 1016 mb low pressure has formed along a decaying frontal zone over the central subtropical Atlantic several hundred nautical miles WSW of the Azores. The low pressure center is currently near 37N47W moving E at around 5 kt. While this system is only producing weak convection at this time, environmental conditions are expected to become conductive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression is likely to form during the next few days while the system drifts generally eastward. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance of development over the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the Ocean Prediction Center at https://www.ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 85W, south of 21N, moving W at 10 kt. Convection is limited along the wave. A southern Gulf of Mexico tropical wave has its axis near 93W, south of 20N, across S Mexico, and into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving W at 10 kt. Convection is isolated and weak over the Gulf. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 21N17W to 11N35W to 16N50W to 09N58W. A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to locally strong SW winds south of the monsoon trough along the coast of Africa. Outside of tropical wave activity, scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 13N, between 22W and 35W, and from 09N to 13N, between 53W and 57W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough stretches from the Florida panhandle to the central Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is observed along northern portion of this feature. A few widely isolated showers and thunderstorms are also observed throughout the basin. Otherwise, a relaxed pressure gradient is supporting favorable marine conditions with gentle winds and slight seas across the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through the weekend maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer pass found fresh to strong winds within a large area of thunderstorms south of Cuba. While these storms are gradually weakening, moderate to fresh winds are likely near these storms today. Another area of moderate convection is observed from 12N to 15N, between 76W to 79W. Elsewhere, a moderate gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the Colombian Basin is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the central Caribbean, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the Bermuda High north of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh E trades across the S central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information on areas of low pressure near 19N20W and 15N51W with the potential to develop into tropical cyclones. Elsewhere a 1018 mb high pressure centered near 27N66W is dominating the pattern, creating light to gentle anticyclonic winds and 2-4 ft seas in the western tropical Atlantic. A weak cold front along the SE US coast is generating scattered moderate convection north of 30N. In the eastern Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient is generating moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, shower and thunderstorm activity are associated with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Additional gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west-northwest, reaching the far SE forecast waters west of 55W on Thu. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through the weekend. $$ Flynn