000 AXNT20 KNHC 310515 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Aug 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1007 mb low pressure located several hundred nautical miles east of the Lesser Antilles, near 15N50W, is along a tropical wave near 50W, moving W at around 5 kt. This area is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, with numerous moderate and isolated strong convection noted from 08N to 18N and between 47W and 55W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds in the northern and eastern quadrants. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in these waters. Although environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, additional gradual development of this system is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west- northwest, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. This feature has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance of development in the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 19W, south of 19N, moving W at 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 10N to 20N and E of 22W. Some gradual development is possible, and the system could become a short- lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic during the next couple of days. By late this week, environmental conditions are forecast to become increasingly unfavorable for further development. This feature has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 48 hours, and a medium chance of development in the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for additional information. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south of 22N, moving W at 20 kt. Divergence aloft results in scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 13N to 19N and between 75W and 80W. A southern Gulf of Mexico tropical wave has its axis along 91W, south of 21N, across SE Mexico, Guatemala and into the eastern Pacific Ocean, moving W at 15 kt. Strong showers and thunderstorms have developed over E Yucatan and Guatemala, with some of convection spilling into the E Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 10N31W to 17N47W to a 1007 mb low pres near 15N50W to 08N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 13N and between 22W and 35W. A few showers are also occurring near the monsoon trough between 37W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... The Gulf of Mexico is in the southwestern periphery of the subtropical ridge in the north Atlantic, allowing for a relaxed pressure gradient across the basin. A weak surface trough stretches from the Apalachee Bay to near 25N88W, sustaining a few weak showers in the eastern Gulf. Storms that formed over Louisiana have traveled southward and are affecting the nearshore and offshore waters. Elsewhere, the weather conditions are generally tranquil. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are found S of 23N, while the rest of Gulf enjoys light to gentle anticyclonic breezes. Seas are 1-2 ft across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Fri maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the convection described in the Tropical Waves section, the rest of the Caribbean Sea enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. A moderate pressure gradient results in moderate to fresh easterly trades across a good portion of the basin, with weaker winds found in the lee of Cuba and SW Caribbean. Seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent in the Caribbean, except for 1-3 ft in the lee of Cuba and SW Caribbean. For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Locally strong east winds may pulse offshore Colombia and Venezuela tonight and Wed night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak 1018 mb high pressure centered between the Bahamas and Bermuda maintains tranquil weather conditions across the western tropical Atlantic, allowing for light to gentle anticyclonic winds to prevail W of 55W. However, gentle to locally fresh easterly trades are noted offshore northern Hispaniola and similar S-SW winds offshore NE Florida. Seas W of 55W are 3-6 ft. Fresh to strong SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough and E of 25W to the African coast. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Farther north, fresh to strong NE winds are affecting the waters offshore Morocco and Western Sahara, and the water passages of the Canary Islands, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 2-5 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, an elongated area of low pressure several hundred miles E of the Lesser Antilles is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Despite only marginally conducive environmental conditions, some gradual development is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next few days. This system is expected to move W and WNW and reach the far SE forecast zones late Thu into Fri. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through the weekend. $$ DELGADO