000 AXNT20 KNHC 300900 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Aug 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1007 mb area of low pressure along a tropical wave is near 15N48W, moving W at 5-10 kt. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms is present with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection noted from 10N to 17N between 42W and 57W. Some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted over the northern semicircle of the low, with seas peaking near 10 ft. The disturbance has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance of development in the next 5 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional marine information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure has its axis just off the west coast of Africa near 18W from 02N-18N, moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 17W and 30W. Some gradual development is possible over the next few days while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward. The system could become a short-lived tropical depression over the far eastern Atlantic waters during the next few days. By late this week, the disturbance is forecast to move over cooler waters and further development is not likely after that time. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands by Wednesday. A tropical wave has its axis in the central Caribbean Sea near 71W from 21N southward, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. An upper- level low centered near the Windward Passage is enhancing scattered moderate convection west of the wave axis from 17N-21N between 71W-77W, including over Haiti and the Windward Passage. Additional convection is noted over the Gulf of Venezuela and inland near the Venezuela/Colombia border. A tropical wave has its axis in the NW Caribbean Sea near 87W from 21N southward to across Honduras and western Nicaragua, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is mostly inland over Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and El Salvador. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Africa near 14N17W to 10N30W to 1007 mb low pressure near 15N48W to 10N53W. The ITCZ extends from 10N53W to 10N61W. Aside from convection described above in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 30W and 42W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed along 85W north of 24N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across portions of the eastern Gulf, east of 86W, including over the western portion of the Straits of Florida. A surface trough is just off the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Otherwise, weak high pressure controls the remainder of the Gulf waters. Light to gentle winds are noted over the eastern Gulf, where seas of 1 to 2 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas are in the western Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Thu night maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... The east Pacific monsoon trough is along 11N over the southwest Caribbean. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over portions of the area. A weak pressure gradient is over the Caribbean waters with mainly moderate trades across the basin, with locally fresh winds noted over the south- central Caribbean and over the Gulf of Honduras. Seas of 4-6 ft are noted over the central Caribbean, with 2-4 ft seas elsewhere. Over the SW Caribbean to the south of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Elsewhere a small 1017 mb low pressure system is located east of Bermuda near 30N54W. A surface trough extends from the low to 25N52W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the low and trough. A high pressure center of 1020 mb is centered west of the low near 29N65W, with a 1019 mb high pressure center east of the low near 31N44W. An upper- level low near the Windward Passage is enhancing scattered moderate convection between the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Windward Passage. Mostly light to gentle winds prevail north of 25N between 25W-75W, where seas of 3-4 ft prevail. Moderate SE winds are off the east coast of Florida. Gentle to moderate trades are south of 25N and west of 60W. Seas are 4-5 ft east of the Bahamas. In the far E Atlantic, fresh to strong SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough between the coast of Africa and 31W, where seas are likely 6-10 ft. Fresh to locally strong NNE winds are noted off the coast of Western Sahara. For the forecast west of 55W, a broad area of low pressure currently over the central tropical Atlantic is likely to develop into a tropical depression later this week. It is forecast to cross 55W Thu and move N of the Leeward Islands Fri, bringing increasing winds and seas to these areas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of the area into the weekend. $$ AL