000 AXNT20 KNHC 300508 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Aug 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1007 mb area of low pressure along a tropical wave is near 15N48W, moving W at 5-10 kt. A large area of disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms is present with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection noted from 09N-18N between 37W-57W. A tropical depression is likely to form later this week as the disturbance moves slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 kt, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data show fresh to strong NE winds in the northern semicircle of the low, while altimeter data from 30/0100 UTC show seas of 10 ft in the western semicircle. The disturbance has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov and the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for additional marine information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave accompanied by a broad area of low pressure has its axis just off the west coast of Africa along 17W from 06N-18N, moving W around 5 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 16N between 17W and 31W. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next few days while it moves generally westward to west-northwestward. There is a low chance of tropical cyclone development within the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, the system could bring locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Cabo Verde Islands by Wednesday. A tropical wave has its axis in the central Caribbean Sea near 70W from 21N southward across the Dominican Republic to western Venezuela, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. An upper-level low centered near the Windward Passage is enhancing scattered moderate convection ahead of the wave axis from 17N-21N between 71W-77W, including over Haiti and the Windward Passage. Additional convection is noted over the Gulf of Venezuela and inland near the Venezuela/Colombia border. A tropical wave has its axis in the NW Caribbean Sea near 86W from 21N southward to across Honduras and western Nicaragua, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce scattered moderate to strong convection mostly inland over Honduras. Isolated showers and tstorms are noted elsewhere near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Africa near 14N17W to 10N30W to 1007 mb low pressure near 15N48W to 10N53.5W. The ITCZ extends from 10N53.5W to 10N61W. All significant convection areas are described above in the Special Features and Tropical Waves sections. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed along 85W north of 24N, at 0300 UTC. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring across portions of the eastern Gulf, east of 86W, including over the western portion of the Straits of Florida. A surface trough along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula is inducing scattered moderate convection over the eastern Bay of Campeche, south of 21N between 91W-93W. Otherwise, weak high pressure controls the remainder of the Gulf waters. Recent ASCAT data show mainly light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf, where buoys are measuring seas of 1 to 2 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas are in the western Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Thu night maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan Peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Areas of precipitation over the central and western Caribbean are associated with a pair of tropical waves and an upper-level low, described in the Tropical Waves section above. The east Pacific monsoon trough is along 11N over the southwest Caribbean. Isolated showers and tstorms are over portions of the area. Somewhat drier conditions are found east of 70W. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data show mainly moderate trades across the basin, with some fresh winds noted over the south-central basin and over the W Caribbean from 14N-17N between 81W-85.5W. Recent buoy data show 3-4 ft seas over the E Caribbean. Seas of 4-6 ft are likely occurring over the central Caribbean, with 2-4 ft seas elsewhere. Over the SW Caribbean to the south of the monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A small 1017 mb low pressure system is located about 570 nm east of Bermuda near 31N54W. A surface trough extends from the low to 25N52W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 25N-29N between 52W-55W. High pressure centers of 1021 mb are located on either side of this feature, centered near 32N44W and 30N67W, respectively. An upper-level low near the Windward Passage is enhancing scattered moderate convection between the Turks and Caicos Islands and the Windward Passage. Recent ASCAT satellite wind data show mostly gentle winds north of 25N between 25W-75W, where seas of 3-4 ft prevail. Moderate SE winds are off the east coast of Florida. Moderate trades are south of 25N and west of 60W. Seas are 4-5 ft east of the Bahamas. In the far E Atlantic, fresh to strong SW winds are noted south of the monsoon trough between the coast of Africa and 31W, where seas are likely 6-10 ft. Fresh to locally strong NNE winds are noted off the coast of Western Sahara. For the forecast west of 55W, a broad area of low pressure currently over the central tropical Atlantic is likely to develop into a tropical depression later this week. It is forecast to cross 55W Thu and move N of the Leeward Islands Fri, bringing increasing winds and seas to these areas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of the area into the weekend. $$ Hagen