000 AXNT20 KNHC 291757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Aug 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave has its axis near 46W/47W, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. A low pressure of 1007 mb is along the wave near 15N46W. This system is producing a large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers that covers the waters from 15N to 19N between 42W and 46W, and from 12N to 14N between 47W and 52W. Although environmental conditions are only marginally favorable, some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 kt, toward the adjacent waters of the northern Leeward Islands. Currently fresh to strong winds and seas of up to 11 ft are associated with this broad area of low pressure, that has a medium change of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for additional marine information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is nearing the coast of western Africa with axis along 15W/16W, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. A low pressure is along the wave axis near 14N15W. The wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa this evening or early Tuesday. Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time while it moves generally westward to west- northwestward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic. There is currently a low probability of tropical cyclone development within the next 5 days. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 67W, from 21N southward, moving westward about 10 to 15 knots. Convection is limited near the wave axis. Another tropical wave is moving across the NW Caribbean with axis along 83W, from 21N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are associated with the wave. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea near 11N15W to 10N30W to low pressure located near 15N46W to 11N53W. The ITCZ continues from 11N53W to 10N61W. Aside from convection described in the Special Feature section above, numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 09N to 15N E of 24W to the coast of W Africa, and just W of the tropical wave located inland along 15W/16W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf waters. A surface trough is analyzed across northern Florida and the NE Gulf, and extends from 31N80W to 27N86W. Some shower and thunderstorm activity is near the trough axis. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western Gulf with light to gentle winds are observed over the eastern Gulf. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the western Gulf, and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters into Thu night maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge extends across the Atlantic waters north of the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the Central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. Numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms are noted across the basin, particularly from 15N to 20N between 76W and 82W. This convective activity is affecting the Cayman Islands and parts of Jamaica, and is the result of a tropical wave combined with upper-level diffluence. Winds and seas could be higher near tstms. For the forecast, a ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea later this week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad area of low pressure over the central tropical Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A small low pressure system located about 600 miles east of Bermuda continues to produce limited shower activity. Strong upper-level winds and dry air are expected to limit significant development of this system while it drifts southward and southwestward over the central Atlantic during the next couple of days, and likely dissipate by the end of the week. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N with two 1021 mb high pressure centers located ESE of Bermuda, and near 31N45W. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted roughly N of 27N under the influence of the high pressure ridge while gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail S of 27N. Winds increase to moderate to fresh speeds over the central Atlantic between the ridge to the N and the low pressure located near 15N46W. Seas are 6-8 ft within this area of winds. Higher seas of 8-11 ft are near the low pressure center. Fresh to strong monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough off western Africa, with seas of 7-10 ft. These winds are enhanced by the tight pressure gradient associated with the low pressure area over western Africa discussed above in the tropical waves section. For the forecast W of 55W, an area of low pressure will move into the far SE forecast zones toward the end of the week, possibly as a tropical cyclone. This low will bring an increase in winds and seas to these forecast zones. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through the week. $$ GR