000 AXNT20 KNHC 290906 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Aug 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Tropical Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning: A tropical wave has its axis near 45W/46W, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Low pressure is along the wave near 14.5N45.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 19N between 40W and 50W. A 1021 mb high pressure center is north of the area of low pressure near 32N44W. This is producing a tight pressure gradient that is supporting strong to near gale force winds within 240 nm north of the low. Frequent gusts to gale force, and seas to 12 ft, are occurring over this area. Although environmental conditions ahead of the system are currently only marginal favorable, some gradual development of this system is expected over the next several days and a tropical depression is likely to form later this week. The disturbance is forecast to move slowly toward the west and then west-northwest at 5 to 10 mph, toward the waters east and northeast of the Leeward Islands. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for additional marine information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is nearing the coast of western Africa near 15W/16W, from 20N southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Low pressure is along the wave axis near 14.5N15.5W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 15N between 12W and 20W. Some gradual development of the system is possible after that time while it moves generally westward across the far eastern tropical Atlantic. There is currently a low probability of tropical cyclone development within the next 5 days. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 62W, from 21N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Isolated convection is in the vicinity of this wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 82WW, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 21N between 77W and 81W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 13N17W to 12N20W to low pressure near 14.5N45.5W to 11N53W. The ITCZ continues from 11N53W to 10N60W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves and special feature section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 20W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the western Gulf with gentle to moderate winds over the eastern Gulf. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range over the western Gulf, and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Thu maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge of high pressure extends across the Atlantic waters north of the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over Colombia is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the Central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trade winds across the central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. A trough of low pressure could develop over the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the middle part of this week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see special features section above for the chance of tropical cyclone development associated with an area of low pressure near 14.5N45.5W. Elsewhere, high pressure prevails across the tropical and subtropical waters north of 20N. Fresh to locally strong winds are found north of Hispaniola, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range west of 75W, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Fresh to strong monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough off western Africa, with seas of 7-10 ft. These winds are enhanced by the tight pressure gradient associated with the low pressure area over western Africa discussed above in the tropical waves section. Elsewhere, over the tropical waters south of 20N, moderate to locally fresh winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, an area of low pressure will move into the far SE forecast zones toward the end of the week, possibly as a tropical cyclone. This low will bring an increase in winds and seas to these forecast zones. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across much of the area through the week. $$ AL