000 AXNT20 KNHC 280554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Aug 28 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W, from 18N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 120 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 15N to 17N. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere within 540 nm on either side of the tropical wave. The precipitation that is near this tropical wave has become a little better organized since yesterday. The environmental conditions are forecast to be generally favorable for additional gradual development during the next several days. It is possible that a tropical depression may form by the middle of next week, as it moves west-northwestward 10 to 15 mph toward the waters that are to the east of the Leeward Islands. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 55W, from 21N southward, moving westward about 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm on either side of the tropical wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 400 nm to the east of the tropical wave, and elsewhere from the tropical wave westward. Scattered moderate to strong is between the NW Cuba and La Isla de la Juventud. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from the tropical wave westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is just to the north of the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 14N17W, to 14N39W 11N51W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong in clusters is within 480 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from 30W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... Cyclonic wind flow covers the western one-third of the Gulf of Mexico, from an upper level trough. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and weakening but lingering precipitation, cover the central three-fourths of the area. Isolated moderate precipitation is in the coastal waters of the western parts of Florida. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico, away from the upper level trough. An inland Mexico NW-to-SE oriented surface trough passes through 22N101W to the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 20N southward, including in Mexico, from the western parts of the Yucatan Peninsula into the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, between 90W and 100W. A surface trough covers the U.S.A. coastal plains from SE Louisiana into central Texas. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rainshowers, are in the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico from 25N northward. A surface ridge extends from the NE Gulf of Mexico, into the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico, to the SW corner of the area, near 20N97W at the coast of Mexico. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds, and slower speeds, cover the area. The sea heights are 3 feet or less. High pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern in the Gulf of Mexico through Wed, maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan Peninsula, due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... Mostly fresh to some strong NE to E winds are from the 75W tropical wave eastward. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are from the 75W tropical wave westward. in the eastern half of the area. Gentle to moderate winds, and slower speeds, cover the rest of the area. The sea heights range from 2 feet to 5 feet from the 75W tropical wave eastward, from 1 foot to 3 feet from the 75W tropical wave westward. The monsoon trough is along 10N from 74W, from Colombia beyond Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 400 nm to the south of the monsoon trough. A ridge N of the Caribbean Sea will support gentle to moderate trade winds across much of the basin through Tue. A trough of low pressure could develop in the northwestern Caribbean Sea during the early or middle part of next week. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of the system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and toward the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 35W westward. Some upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving from the Atlantic Ocean that is from 20N southward, near the 41W tropical wave, toward the north. The upper level cyclonic wind flow is related to a 27N47W cyclonic circulation center, and to a 24N72W cyclonic circulation center. Three separate surface troughs are in the areas of the upper level cyclonic wind flow. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 35W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward from 34W eastward. The wave heights range from 7 feet to 9 feet within 660 nm to the east of the 41W tropical wave, from 06N to 23N. The wave heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean from 70W eastward. The wave heights range from 2 feet to 3 feet from 70W westward. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 14N to 21N between 40W and 45W, around the 41W tropical wave. Southerly moderate to fresh winds are from 12N southward between 35W and 45W. Strong to near-gale northerly winds are from 19N to 22N within 210 nm of the coast of Africa. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are from 15N to 27N between 24W and 60W eastward, from the monsoon trough northward from 24W eastward; and winds from the SW and W from the monsoon trough southward from 20W eastward, and from the SW from 10W eastward. Moderate wind speeds or slower are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola during the next couple of days. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will prevail. $$ mt/al