000
AXNT20 KNHC 271801
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat Aug 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 39W, from 18N 
southward, moving westward about 10-15 knots. Scattered moderate 
convection is from 13N to 17N between 40W and 44W. The latest
scatterometer data indicates fresh NE winds from 16N to 20N
between 36W and 42W. Environmental conditions are 
forecast to be generally favorable for some gradual development of 
this system over the next several days, and a tropical depression 
could form by the middle of next week as it moves west-northwestward 
at 10 to 15 kt toward the waters east of the Leeward Islands. The
chance of formation is low through 48 hours and medium through
five days.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 54W, from 20N 
southward, moving westward about 10-15 knots. There is no 
significant convection in the vicinity of this wave. 

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis near 77W, from 22N 
southward, moving westward 10-15 knots. Scattered showers are
noted in the SW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of 
Senegal near 14N17W to 13N39W to 07N58W. Aside from convection 
noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 10N to 13N between 46W and 49W.
 
GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 1500 UTC, a surface trough is analyzed in the W Gulf from
26N91W to 21N93W. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by upper
level divergence, is from 22N to 27N between 89W and 94W. Locally
fresh SE to NE winds are noted near the trough axis. Elsewhere, a
diffuse pressure gradient provides light to gentle E to SE flow
across the basin along the western periphery of the subtropical
Atlantic High. Seas are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Wed maintaining 
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to 
E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due 
to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through 
the forecast period. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic,
SSW to the Gulf of Venezuela. Scattered moderate convection east 
of the trough axis is from 14N to 18N between 71W and 73W. Environmental 
conditions could become more conducive for slow development of this 
system during the early or middle part of next week while it moves 
generally westward at 10 to 15 mph across the central and 
northwestern Caribbean Sea. The chance of development
through 48 hours and five days is low. A weak pressure gradient 
supports gentle to moderate trades in the E and Central Caribbean,
diminishing to light trades in the W Caribbean. Seas are 2-4 ft 
across the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
push south tomorrow, increasing trades to moderate to fresh speeds in
the eastern and central Caribbean through Tue. Gentle to moderate
winds will continue across the western Caribbean through Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A series of weak troughs prevail west of 50W. The first trough
extends from 31N73W to the NE Bahamas. Scattered showers are in 
the vicinity of this trough. A second trough extends from 31N66W 
to 27N66W. No significant convection is noted with this trough. A
third trough extends from 31N54W to 23N55W. No significant
convection is noted with this trough. Light to gentle winds are 
in the vicinity of the three troughs. Elsewhere across the basin,
gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail. Seas are 2-4 ft 
north of 25N and west of 55W, and 4-7 ft elsewhere across open 
waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the
region over the next few days. Gentle to moderate east to 
southeast winds will prevail over the area through the weekend and
into early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds between 
the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. 

$$
Mahoney