000
AXNT20 KNHC 270004
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat Aug 27 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2350 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis near 27W from 06N to 20N, moving 
west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 17N 
between 23W and 31W. Some gradual development of this system 
is possible during the early and middle parts of next week while 
it moves slowly W to WNW across the eastern and central tropical 
Atlantic.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic with axis near 50W  
from 04N to 20N, moving west at 10-15 knots. There is no
convection associated with this wave at this time.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 72W S
of 20N into Colombia, and moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered 
showers and isolated thunderstorms are S of 13N between 70W and
77W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 18N16W to 11N33W to 12N51W. Aside
from the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous
moderate isolated strong convection is from 06N to 14N between 33W
and 45W. 
 
...GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level trough is supporting a stationary front from
Jacksonville, Florida to a low in south-central Louisiana and then
from the low SW to the southern tip of Texas. This frontal
boundary is generating scattered showers in the NW basin. In the
SW Gulf, middle-level divergent flow and the passage of a tropical
wave is generating scattered heavy showers and tstms in the Bay of
Campeche while a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan peninsula
is generating numerous heavy showers and tstms in the eastern Bay
of Campeche. Otherwise, a generally weak pressure gradient
maintains gentle to moderate return flow and seas to 3 ft basin-
wide. 

For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the 
weather pattern across the Gulf waters through Wed maintaining 
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to 
E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due 
to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through 
the forecast period. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is just E of Puerto Rico generating scattered to
isolated showers in the NE Caribbean. Similar shower activity is
in the Windward Islands. Otherwise, aside from the tropical wave
in the central basin, a weak pressure gradient is sustaining
gentle to moderate winds basin-wide with locally fresh winds in
the Gulf of Honduras and the Windward passage. Seas are in the 3
to 4 ft range.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will 
support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central 
Caribbean, and gentle to moderate winds across the western 
Caribbean through Tue. Environmental conditions could become more 
conducive for slow development of a trough, currently located over
the eastern Caribbean, during the early or middle part of next 
week while it moves generally westward at around 10 kt across the 
central and NW Caribbean Sea.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...



For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the
region over the next few days. Gentle to moderate east to southeast
winds will prevail over the area through the weekend and into 
early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds between the 
southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. 

$$
Ramos