000 AXNT20 KNHC 260909 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Aug 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 24W, from 19N southward, moving westward about 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 24W and 28W. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system through early next week while it moves westward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic at 15 to 20 mph, and There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next five days. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 47W, from 20N southward, moving westward about 10 to 15 knots. There is no significant deep convection associated to this wave. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave axis is near 70W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. There is no significant deep convection associated to this tropical wave. The northern extent of a tropical wave has its axis near 94W from 21N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted over the SW Gulf in association to this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Mauritania near 20N16W to 12N31W to 12N38W to 07N50W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 32W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... The northern extent of a tropical wave is over the SW Gulf. High pressure prevails elsewhere. Winds are light to gentle over the NE Gulf, and gentle to moderate elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will remain over the area through the forecast period maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse near and to the W of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects during the late afternoons and at night through the forecast period. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak pressure pattern prevails across the Caribbean waters with gentle to moderate winds prevailing. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the central Caribbean and 1-3 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a surface trough over the eastern Caribbean will continue to propagate westward across the Caribbean waters. Environmental conditions could become conducive for slow development when it moves across the central and western Caribbean Sea, and there is a low chance for tropical cyclone development in the next five days. Otherwise, high pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from near 31N45W to 27N59W. Light to gentle winds are noted in the vicinity of this trough. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted north of 23N and west of 71W. Gentle to moderate winds generally prevail across the remainder of the discussion area. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range west of 73W. Seas of 6-7 ft are noted from 17N to 25N east of 34W, and from 06N to 12N between 16W and 32W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will build across the area over the next few days. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will prevail over the area through the weekend and into early next week, except for moderate to fresh winds between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola. $$ AL