089 AXNT20 KNHC 221023 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Aug 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W from 08N to 22N moving westward at 15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 16N. Recently developed scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 90 nm of the low in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the low in the SW quadrant, and within 120 nm of the low in the NW quadrant. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen within 240 nm E of the wave from 11N-14N. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system while it moves W-WNW at 10-15 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic for the next several days. Currently, this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone development through 5 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 49W from 06N to 22N moving westward at about 15 kt. A scatterometer data pass from last night indicated a subtle northeast to east-southeast wind shift of the surface winds across the axis of this wave. No deep convection is presently noted as the wave is passing through a very dry and stable surrounding atmospheric environment. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 79W south of 20N to the eastern Pacific waters just west of Colombia. It is moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 13N between the wave and 83W and near the northern part of the wave to the coast of Cuba. Isolated small showers and thunderstorms are south of 13N within 120 nm east of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W southwestward through the 1012 mb low that is on the tropical wave along 29W, and continues to 11N36W and to just east of the tropical wave that is along 49W. The ITCZ extends from 09N50W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 35W-40W, within 120 nm south of the trough between 32W-35W, from 05N to 09N between 51W-55W and within 60 nm northwest of the ITCZ between 54W-57W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends from the Atlantic west-southwestward to across the north-central Gulf of Mexico, with a 1018 mb high pressure centered just inland the western Florida panhandle. As a result, gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow dominates the Gulf with 2-4 ft seas throughout. A surface trough is just along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Earlier observed related scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern and central Bay of Campeche has diminished to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Large clusters of thunderstorms are increasing along and inland the coast of Mexico between 94W-98W. Another surface trough extends from inland central Florida near 29N82.5W southward to just north of western Cuba near 23N83W. Scattered moderate convection shifting westward is within 120 nm west of this trough. Otherwise, convection is widely isolated throughout the basin. For the forecast, weak high pressure ridging will remain over the Gulf through the forecast period, maintaining to gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the tropical waves section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. Moderate trades in the eastern Caribbean increase to fresh in the central basin, with an area of strong easterly winds near Cabo Beata. The earlier fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage area have diminished to mainly fresh speeds per the latest ASCAT data pass. Fresh northeast to east winds are in the lee of Cuba. Winds are gentle to moderate elsewhere. An overnight altimeter data pass indicated 4-6 ft seas south of Hispaniola near the strong winds. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range throughout the remainder of the basin. Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving westward are in the lee Cuba extending westward to 85W and south to near 18N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are just south of Hispaniola between 70W-74W, and over and near the Windward Passage. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds across the Windward Passage and vicinity will diminish this morning. Otherwise, surface ridging north of the area will continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds in the eastern and central Caribbean through the forecast period, while gentle to moderate winds will continue across the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... In the western Atlantic, a large upper-level low slowly moving westward is observed on water vapor imagery to be near 24N60W. At the surface, a trough extends from 29N59W to 18N60W, also slowly moving westward. Numerous moderate convection is present from 20N to 28N between 56W-63W. An area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is evident to the west from 25N to 29N and between 65W-77W. It is moving westward. The remainder of the western Atlantic is dominated by a high pressure ridge extending from the Azores to across northern Florida and to the northern Gulf of Mexico. Winds are gentle within the ridge axis with moderate easterlies to the south. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range. In the eastern Atlantic, winds are moderate to fresh, northeast in direction. An overnight ASCAT data pass revealed strong winds funneling through the Canary Island gaps. Seas are 6-8 ft east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging extending from Bermuda to northern Florida will change little through tonight allowing for moderate to fresh easterly winds south of 22N. A weak surface trough will move westward from 65W to 75W today accompanied by scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The trough will weaken the ridge, allowing for winds to diminish by Wed. Afterwards, relatively weak high pressure will be present over the area through the end of the week. $$ Aguirre