000 AXNT20 KNHC 190604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Aug 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located over southeastern Mexico is expected to emerge into the Bay of Campeche later this morning. Environmental conditions appear favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression could form while the system moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico later today or Saturday. However, by Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico, which will end its chances of development. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 25W from 19N southward across the western Cabo Verde Islands, and moving westward about 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N between 18W and 27W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is near 55W from 19N southward into Suriname, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found over eastern Suriname and east of the Leeward Islands from 16N to 21N between 57W and 61W. Another tropical wave is near 91W from 21N southward along the Yucatan west coast across southern Mexico and Guatemala into the East Pacific, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north and west of the Yucatan, and over southeastern Mexico and Guatemala. Please see the Special Features section above on the potential for tropical cyclone development. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of northern Mauritania, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands at 13N23W to 08N39W. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are present from 13N to 16N between the coast of Senegal and 21W. Scattered moderate convection is seen farther west near the trough from 08N to 11N between 34W and 39W, and also south of the trough from 04N to 08N between 27W and 34W. An ITCZ continues from 08N39W through 07N47W to 10N52W. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 80 nm north, and up to 50 nm south of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for potential tropical cyclone development associated with a tropical wave in the Bay of Campeche. A 1012 mb low pressure over southern Louisiana and its associated frontal boundary over southern Texas are causing scattered showers and thunderstorms near the Louisiana and Texas coast. Convergent surface winds are triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southeastern Gulf, north of the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Gulf. A modest surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1015 mb high over the east- central Gulf to north of Tampico, Mexico. This feature is promoting gentle ESE to S winds and seas of 1 to 2 ft for the north-central and eastern Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel and Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate ESE to S winds and 2 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, another frontal boundary extending from the low over southern Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend area will continue to enhance showers and thunderstorms across the northeastern Gulf through early Fri. The strong tropical wave over the western Yucatan Peninsula is forecast to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later this morning, which will sustain showers and thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche through Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Enhanced by an upper-level trough near central Cuba, convergent trades are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just south of Cuba and near Hispaniola. The Atlantic ridge extending southwestward from the 1028 mb Azores High continues to channel NE to E trades across the entire basin. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas over the south-central basin, just north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate ENE to E winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist at the northwestern basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge north of the region will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Sat, then gradually weaken through Mon. A broad tropical wave will move across the Tropical Atlantic waters tonight, across the eastern Caribbean Fri, and the central Caribbean Fri night and Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough reaching northeastward from southwest Florida to off the northern Florida coast is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the central and southern Florida, and the offshore waters east of northern Florida. A robust upper-level low over the north-central Atlantic at 31N47W is triggering scattered moderate convection north of 28N between 45W and 49W. A surface trough near 14N51W is causing similar conditions from 13N to 16N between 49W and 52W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Light to gentle SE to SW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas near the Atlantic ridge related to the 1028 mb Azores High can be found north of 25N between 45W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Farther south, gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are evident from 11N to 25N between 25W and the Less Antilles/Bahamas. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and seas at 6 to 8 ft are found north of 20N between the northwest African coast and 25W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging from the Azores High to the Bahamas is expected to gradually shift northward to along 30N through Sat, then north of the area by Mon night. A frontal boundary over the NE Florida coastal waters will stall across northern Florida tonight and then gradually lift northward through Fri while weakening. Active weather ahead of the front across the northern Bahamas and its offshore waters will persist through tonight. Gentle to moderate easterly winds S of 25N will reach moderate to fresh speeds tonight through Sun as a tropical wave moves across the eastern and central Caribbean. $$ Chan