000 AXNT20 KNHC 182200 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Aug 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 24W, from 19N southward, moving westward at 10 knots to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 11N between 22W and 30W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has its axis near 54W, from 19N southward, moving westward at 15 knots to 20 knots. Isolated moderate showers are found from 08N to 10N between 52W and 56W. A tropical wave has its axis near 89W/90W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted across the Yucatan Peninsula and its surrounding waters. This system is forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, where an area of low pressure could form. After that, additional slow development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 14N17W to 09N27W to 12N42W. The ITCZ continues from 12N342W to 12N52W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is found from 04N to 09N between 30W and 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure is centered near 23N86W. A cold front extends from The Florida Big Bend to Louisiana. Active convection is over the northern Gulf in the vicinity of the front. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, the area of high pressure will drift ESE and dissipate tonight. The cold front will exit the NE Gulf this evening, however shower activity associated with it will linger through Fri. Otherwise, a tropical wave over Guatemala is forecast to move across southeastern Mexico through tonight before emerging over the Bay of Campeche on Friday, where an area of low pressure could form. After that, additional slow development of this system is possible while it moves NW over the SW Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected across the SW and west-central gulf this evening through Sat night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A ridge of high pressure extends north of the area. The pressure gradient between the ridge and climatological low pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the south central Caribbean, 3-5 ft over the north central Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, surface ridging building N of the region will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Sat, then gradually weaken through Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 26N67W to 19N67W. High pressure ridging dominates the remainder of the waters north of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the discussion waters. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range west of 60W as well as north of 24N between 45W and 60W. Elsewhere, seas of 5-7 ft prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging building from the Azores high to the Bahamas is expected to gradually shift northward to along 30N through Sat, then N of the area by Mon night. A frontal boundary over the NE Florida offshore waters will lift northward. Otherwise, moderate to fresh easterly winds are forecast S of 25N Thu through Sun. $$ AL