000 AXNT20 KNHC 180559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Aug 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 21W from northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands at 19N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 19W and 24W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 50W from 19N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found from 06N to 10N between 45W and 49W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from 20N southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are occurring over Belize and the southwestern Gulf of Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen south of the Island of Youth from 16N to 20N between 82W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast just north of Nouakchott, passing south of the Cabo Verde Islands at 13N24W to 08N37W. Scattered moderated convection is present near the trough from 10N to 12N between 25W and 31W, and farther south from 02N to 07N between 24W and 37W, and also from 05N to 09N between the Guinea/Sierra Leone coast and 19W. An ITCZ continues from 08N37W to 08N49W. Other than convection associated with the tropical wave, there is no significant convection near the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front across northern Florida is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Florida Panhandle. Otherwise, a 1015 mb high over the east-central Gulf is providing light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas for the east-central, southeastern and north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE to WSW winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are evident for the northwestern, west-central and northeastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the high will drift ESE to the central Gulf before dissipating tonight. The stationary front near the Florida- Alabama/Georgia border will linger through Thu, supporting scattered showers and tstms in the northeastern Gulf through Thu night and moderate SW to W winds through tonight. Otherwise, a tropical wave over the northwestern Caribbean Sea is forecast to move across Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula through Thu night, and emerge over the Bay of Campeche, where an area of low pressure could form on Friday. Some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves NW over the southwestern Gulf through the weekend. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh winds are expected across the southwestern and west-central gulf Thu through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic ridge extends southwestward from a 1030 mb Azores High through the Florida Straits, sustaining NE to ENE trade winds across the entire basin. Convergent trade winds are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just south of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are seen over the south-central basin, just north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present for the central basin and Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, active weather in the northwestern basin is expected to gradually shift westward with the tropical wave through Thu night. Surface ridging building north of the region will support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean tonight through Sat. A broad tropical wave will move across the Tropical Atlantic waters Thu night, across the eastern Caribbean Fri, and the central Caribbean Fri night and Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary/cold front extending east-northeastward from the Florida-Georgia border is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off the northern Florida coast and southwest of Bermuda. A surface trough near 21N66W is causing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms just north of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Atlantic ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft north of 23N between 55W and the Florida coast/Bahamas, except moderate SW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 27N between 65W and 75W to the south of the aforementioned front. Gentle to moderate NE to E trades and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted farther east, north of 14N between 25W and 55W; and also farther south from 11N to 23N between 25W and the Lesser Antilles. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE trades and seas at 7 to 9 ft are present north of 17N between the northwest African coast and 25W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southerly winds with 5 to 8 ft seas in southerly swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging has begun to build across the waters north of the Greater Antilles and is expected to prevail through Mon night. A stalled frontal boundary near the NE Florida waters along 31N will linger across the region through Thu, which will maintain active weather N of 26N between Florida and 63W. Moderate SW winds ahead of the front and south of Bermuda will diminish on Thu. Otherwise, moderate to fresh easterly winds are forecast south of 25N Thu through Sun as a tropical wave move across the eastern and central Caribbean. $$ Chan