000 AXNT20 KNHC 160530 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Aug 16 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 27W, south of 21N, moving W at 15 kt. No deep convection is associated with this feature. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends has its axis near 41W, south of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is associated with this wave. An central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 72W, south of 20N, moving W at 15 kts. The northern portion of the wave is enhancing the development of showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola. No deep convection near the trough axis in the Caribbean Sea. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 80W, south of 19N, moving W at 15 kt. Numerous moderate with isolated strong convection is observed south of 14N and between 77W and 82W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 09N30W to 07N49W. The ITCZ extends from 07N49W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection noted from 04N to 10N and E of 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak high pressure regime dominates the Gulf of Mexico, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The exception are thunderstorms that developed earlier this evening in western Yucatan are moving into the eastern Bay of Campeche waters. Moderate to locally strong E-SE winds are found in the Bay of Campeche and western Gulf, along with seas of 3-4 ft. Meanwhile, light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft are evident elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, a 1015 high pressure is centered near 28N90W and will settle across the E central Gulf tonight through Thu. A front will sink S and settle north of the northern Gulf Tue night and linger in this area through Thu. This will increase winds across the northeast and north-central Gulf with moderate southerly winds. Moderate NE to E winds north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula will pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and evenings through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside for the convection in the SW Caribbean Sea discussed in the Tropical Waves section, the remainder of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. A weak high pressure regime also dominates the Caribbean, supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the central and SE portions of the basin and the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle trades and seas of 1-3 ft prevail. For the forecast, weak high pressure resides across the W Atlc to the north of Puerto Rico along 26N and is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. A broad trough associated with a tropical wave is moving westward across the eastern Caribbean and will reach 75W tonight. The tropical wave will continue moving westward across the western basin Tue through Wed night. High pressure will strengthen modestly to the north of the region behind the tropical wave Tue night through Fri. This will help produce fresh to strong trades across the south-central basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The tropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned north of the Azores. Over the western tropical Atlantic, a weak surface trough extends from 31N74W to central Florida and a few showers are noted near the trough axis. Divergence aloft is also sustaining scattered moderate convection N of 27N and between 66W and 73W. A couple of weak surface troughs are located north and northeast of the Leeward Islands, generating a few weak showers. Moderate to locally fresh E-NE winds are prevalent between 25W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are evident on recent scatterometer satellite data N of 18N and E of 25W, with the strongest winds off NW Mauritania, Western Sahara and the waters surrounding the Canary Islands. Seas in this portion of the Atlantic are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, a weakening frontal trough extends from 31N74W to central Florida near 27.5N81W. The trough will drift ESE and dissipate Tue. Another frontal boundary will approach the NE Florida waters Tue night and linger across the region through Thu, which will maintain active weather N of 28N and E of the boundary through midweek. A broad surface trough extending from 28N64W to Puerto Rico is interrupting the weak Atlantic ridge. Active thunderstorms occurring E of this trough will persist through Tue as the trough drifts westward. High pressure will reestablish along 25-27N Wed through Fri. $$ DELGADO