246 AXNT20 KNHC 132343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Aug 14 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has an axis along 23W from 20N southward, moving W at 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure is east of the wave axis near 16N20W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the low and wave axis from 04N-10N between 16W-26W, and from 15N-20N between 16W-21W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 56W from 24N southward, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis mainly N of 20N. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 67W from 17N southward to northern Venezuela, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the southern portion affecting northern Venezuela. A western Caribbean tropical wave has an axis along 82W from 21N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 10N between 80W-84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 09N38W. The ITCZ is not present at this time. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, no significant convection is present at this time. GULF OF MEXICO... Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased since this morning over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico in association with a broad low pressure area centered near 28N96W. THe convection is noted N of 24N and W of 91W. A surface trough extends from 29N93W to the low to 25N97W. Surface pressures remain high and any additional development should be slow to occur while the system moves slowly WSW and approaches the Texas coast tonight. The disturbance is forecast to move inland over southern Texas on Sunday morning. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible along portions of the Texas coast through the weekend. For more information about the potential for heavy rainfall, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service office. Formation chances remain low within the next 48 hours and next 5 days. High pressure extends across most of the Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate cyclonic winds are noted along this broad low with light winds elsewhere. Seas range 2 to 3 ft across the basin. For the forecast outside of the broad low in the NW Gulf, strengthening surface ridge across the central and east-central Gulf will cause moderate NE to E winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula to pulse to fresh during the late afternoons and evenings through Tue. Meanwhile, a weak stationary front is expected to stall along the northern Gulf coast from New Orleans to northern Florida through Sun evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Greater Antilles and Central America due to daytime heating. The latest ASCAT depicts light to gentle winds across the basin with moderate winds in the central basin with seas ranging 3-5 ft. For the forecast, the Atlantic high pressure will drift southward and weaken through early next week. Moderate trade winds over the central Caribbean will continue through Mon. Afterward, these trades should become fresh to strong as the high builds southwestward. A broad surface trough related to a tropical wave over the western Atlantic is approaching the Lesser Antilles this evening, increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms there. It will then reach the eastern Caribbean Sun through early Mon, then the central Caribbean Mon through late Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves moving across the basin. A surface ridge prevails across most of the basin, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 31N45W. A surface trough is noted off the Florida coast from 30N79W to 28N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the Florida Peninsula and the western Atlantic waters mainly W of 70W. Scattered moderate convection is noted across the central Atlantic N of 25N between 47W and 53W. Light to gentle winds are noted across the SW N Atlantic with seas 1-3 ft. Gentle to moderate winds across the central and eastern Atlantic with seas 4-7 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, frontal boundary moving slowly eastward off the southeast U.S. coast will maintain showers and thunderstorms offshore from northern and central Florida through tonight, then spread southward to the offshore waters of southeastern Florida and over the Bahamas Sun through Mon. A broad tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is going to trigger passing showers and higher seas over the nearby Atlantic waters through early Mon morning. During midweek, a cold front will exit the Georgia/northern Florida coast and gradually weaken. $$ ERA