000 AXNT20 KNHC 121732 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Aug 12 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The next tropical wave has entered the Atlantic Ocean. The tropical wave is along 18W, from 20N southward, with an estimated westward motion of 10-15 kt based on 700 mb wind speeds. 1010 mb low pressure is along the wave axis near 13N18W. Scatterometer data from this morning depicts moderate to fresh winds in the vicinity of the wave axis. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the Monsoon Trough, is west of the wave axis from 08N to 11N between 18W and 25W. A tropical wave is along 49.5W, from 23N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N to 13N between 46W and 48W and from 09N to 11N between 48W and 52W. A tropical wave approaching Barbados is along 59W, from 21N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No convection is noted with the wave at this time. A tropical wave located in the central Caribbean is along 73W, from 20N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave axis, from 16N to 19N between 68W and 70W, including coastal sections of Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N18W to 14N46W to 09N59W. Scattered showers are along the boundary. GULF OF MEXICO... 1014 mb low pressure is centered in the NW Gulf near 29N92W, with a trough extending from the low southwest to 25N97W. These features, combined with broad surface convergence across the north-central and northeast Gulf, is producing scattered moderate convection north of 24N between 85W and 96W. Winds and seas may be locally higher in the convection. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, gentle to moderate SE to S winds prevail along the periphery of the subtropical Atlantic ridge, with seas of 2-4 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure extending from the western Atlantic westward along 29N to the N central Gulf will sink southeast from late this afternoon through Tue. This will allow for gentle to moderate winds over the basin to weaken to light to gentle into next week. Moderate NE to E winds will pulse to fresh during the late afternoon and evenings off the NW Yucatan peninsula through early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over the northern Gulf waters through early Sat, then shift across the NW Gulf Sat through Sun as a surface trough lingers over the north-central Gulf with low pressure along it. At the same time, a weak frontal boundary is expected to stall just north of the central and NE Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The latest scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate trades in the eastern and central Caribbean, with light to gentle trades in the western Caribbean. The trades have slowed in recent days as the Bermuda-Azores high retreats further north and the pressure gradient over the Caribbean relaxes. 1010 mb Colombian/Panamanian low is in the SW Caribbean near 11N81W, along the extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough. Scattered moderate convection is to the northwest of the low, from 11N to 14N west of 81W including coastal regions of Nicaragua. For the forecast, The Atlantic ridge will weaken through early next week. Moderate to fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean will weaken to moderate Sat through Mon, then increase to fresh late Mon through Tue night. A broad surface trough accompanies a tropical wave across the central Atlantic, and is expected to move across the Tropical N Atlantic Fri night through Sat night, across the eastern Caribbean early Sun through early Mon, and across the central Caribbean Mon through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An outflow boundary is analyzed in the deep tropics, from 12N39W to 11N41W to 09N40W, moving quickly west at 25-30 kt. E winds to 30 kt were captured well in scatterometer data this morning behind the boundary. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic continues to be dominated by the subtropical ridge located north of the area. NE to E winds are gentle to moderate across the basin, except from 18N to 24N east of 30W where NE winds are fresh. Seas are 3-5 ft north of 19N and west of 55W, and 5-7 ft elsewhere in open waters. Seas are locally 8 ft NE of the Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, the ridge will weaken and sink southward through early next week as a frontal boundary moves off the eastern seaboard and stalls NE Florida along about 31N. Moderate to fresh E winds S of 25N will veer to the SE and weaken to gentle early Sat and change little into next week. Light to gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere through the period. A tropical wave will reach the southeast forecast waters by early Sat, bringing a slight increase in winds and seas over those waters through early Mon. $$ Mahoney