000 AXNT20 KNHC 111012 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Aug 11 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 36W, from 06N to 19N, moving westward at 10-15 knots. There is a 1010 mb low pressure associated with this wave near 13N36W. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 17N between 34W and 45W. Upper- level winds are expected to become increasingly unfavorable for development during the next couple of days while the system moves generally west- northwestward A tropical wave is along 52W, from 05N to 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are from 07N to 16N between 46W and 54W. A tropical wave is near 66W, S of 20N, moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered to isolated showers are from 13N to 19N between 60W and 70W. A tropical wave is inland the Yucatan peninsula, Guatemala and into the E Pacific waters. Isolated showers associated with this wave are in the far NW Caribbean and in the Bay of Campeche. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 14N17W to a 1010 mb low near 13N36W to 12N49W. Aside the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate to strong convection is from 08N to 13N between 12W and 18W, and from 06N to 11N between 23W and 29W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A tropical wave moving across the Yucatan peninsula, Guatemala and into the E Pacific waters is generating scattered showers in the Bay of Campeche. Moisture inflow from the Caribbean by low- level southerly flow along with middle-level divergent flow in the NE basin is supporting scattered showers and tstms in that region. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across the gulf supporting gentle to moderate return flow with slight seas. For the forecast, Atlantic surface ridging will be the dominant feature across the basin through Fri. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate return flow. By Sat, the ridge will weaken, and winds will become light to gentle through early next week. Winds will also pulse moderate to locally fresh in the evenings off the NW Yucatan peninsula through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave crossing the Yucatan peninsula and Guatemala is supporting isolated showers in the far NW Caribbean while a second tropical wave in the eastern basin generates similar convective activity in the NE Caribbean. The Bermuda High extends a ridge to the northern basin and continue to support moderate to fresh trade winds basin-wide. Seas are slight to moderate with a maximum of 7 ft in the SW Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure centered E of Bermuda will remain nearly stationary through today before weakening. This will maintain mainly fresh easterly winds across the central and SW Caribbean through tonight as a tropical wave also moves across this region of the basin. Winds will reach gentle to moderate speeds basin-wide on Fri, prevailing through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging is the main feature across the Atlantic subtropical waters, which is supporting gentle to moderate winds W of 55W, moderate easterlies in the central basin, and mainly fresh NE winds over the eastern portion of the area. Seas are slight W of 55W and moderate E of 55W with a maximum of 8-9 ft between the coast of NW Africa and the Cape Verde Islands. For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging centered E of Bermuda and extending across the region will weaken today, thus maintaining mainly fresh easterly winds S of of 25N. Afterward, winds will reach moderate speeds, which will continue through Sat. Light to gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere through this period. Otherwise, a tropical wave will reach the SE offshore waters by Sat, which will bring a slight increase in winds and seas over that region through early on Mon. $$ Ramos