000 AXNT20 KNHC 101800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Aug 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern tropical wave is near 33W from 20N southward across a 1011 mb low near 12N33W, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 14N between 30W and 40W. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next few days. However, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 48W from 20N southward, and moving west about 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 10N to 13N between 46W and 30W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 62W from 20N southward across the Leeward Islands into northeastern Venezuela, and moving west about 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident near the Islands of Trinidad and Tobago. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from near the Yucatan Channel southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the Gulf of Honduras and near the border of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic at the coast of northern Senegal across a 1011 mb low at 12N33W to 12N49W. Other than convection associated with the low/tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is occurring south of the trough from 05N to 10N between the Guinea/Sierra Leone coast and 26W. An ITCZ continues from 12N49W to 13N59W. No significant convection is observed near this feature. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level trough over the north-central Gulf is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms east of 93W from 23N to the Gulf States coast. A weak surface ridge stretches west- southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to south of Brownsville, Texas. It is sustaining light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas for most of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist near the Florida Keys. For the forecast, the mid-level trough will prolong scattered showers and thunderstorms E of 95W. Atlantic surface ridging will be the dominant feature across the basin through early Fri. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate return flow. On Fri, the ridge will weaken, and winds will become light to gentle and continue through the weekend and into early next week. Winds will also pulse from moderate to locally fresh in the evenings off the northwest Yucatan through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trade winds are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms east of Nicaragua, south of Puerto Rico and near the northwestern Venezuela coast. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the basin. The Bermuda High continues to channel NE to E trades across the entire Caribbean Basin. Fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft are found over the south-central basin, north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE winds and winds of 5 to 7 ft are seen for the north-central and west central basin. Gentle monsoonal winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are present across the waters north of Panama. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the Bermuda High will remain nearly stationary through today before weakening. This will result in fresh to strong trade winds persisting across portions of the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through tonight. Winds will diminish to between moderate and fresh late tonight into Thu as a tropical wave moves across the eastern basin. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds are forecast for the central and eastern Caribbean from Thu night through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low east of Bermuda at 32N52W is producing isolated thunderstorms north of 27N between 54W and 62W. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Bermuda High is providing light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas north of 23N between 45W and the Georgia-Florida coast. Gentle to moderate NE to ENE trades and seas at 4 to 7 ft are seen farther south from 15N to 23N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, and near the Canary Islands north of 16N between the northwest African coast and 35W/45W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southeasterly winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging extending across the region from the Bermuda High will weaken today. The fresh to locally strong winds N of 25N will diminish tonight, becoming moderate to locally fresh by Thu. Light to gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. Otherwise, a strong tropical wave will reach the offshore waters near the Lesser Antilles by Sat with an increase in winds and seas over that region through early next week. $$ Chan