396 AXNT20 KNHC 100951 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Aug 10 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1010 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 32W/33W, extending from 04N to 19N and moving westward about 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 16N between 24W and 41W. Some gradual development of this system is possible over the next few days. However, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend. A tropical wave is along 48W, extending from 04N to 20N, and moving west about 15 kt. No significant deep convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave is along 61W, extending S of 19N, and moving westward at 15-20 knots. There is no convection associated with this wave. A tropical wave is along 84W, extending S of 20N, and moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered to isolated showers and tstms are occuring across the NW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 13N17W to 12N33W to 12N52W. The ITCZ continues from 12N52W to 13N59W. For convection information, see the tropical waves section. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A middle-level inverted trough over the central and eastern gulf continues to support scattered showers and tstms E of 90W and in the Bay of Campeche. The Bermuda/Azores high continues to extend a ridge SW across Florida and into the western Gulf of Mexico, which is supporting gentle to locally moderate SE winds and seas to 3 ft as indicated by recent altimeter data. For the forecast, Atlantic surface ridging will be the dominant feature across the basin through early on Fri. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate return flow. On Fri, the ridge will weaken, and winds will become light to gentle, continuing through the remainder forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trade winds prevail over the central and portions of the SW Caribbean as the Bermuda High remains nearly stationary N of the area. Fresh to strong NE winds are also noted along the Windward passage with seas to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterlies are across the E basin while gentle to moderate trade winds are in the NW Caribbean. Seas are in the 5-6 ft, 7-8 ft and to 3 ft in the eastern, central and NW Caribbean, respectively. In terms of convection, a tropical wave moving across Central America is supporting scattered to isolated showers in the NW basin while the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough is supporting numerous strong convection in the offshore waters between southern Panama and Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure centered just ENE of Bermuda will remain nearly stationary through today before weakening. This will result in fresh to strong trade winds over the central and portions of the SW Caribbean diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds tonight into Thu as a tropical wave moves across the eastern basin. Otherwise, gentle to moderate trade winds are forecast for the central and eastern Caribbean from Thu night through Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For the forecast W of 55W, surface ridging centered just ENE of Bermuda and extending across the region will weaken today, thus resulting in fresh to locally strong winds diminishing to moderate speeds south of 25N. Light to gentle variable winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. Otherwise, an area of low pressure associated with a strong tropical wave will reach the SE offshore waters by Sat night, thus increasing the winds and seas over that region for the remainder of the forecast period. $$ Ramos