000 AXNT20 KNHC 091801 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Aug 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is west of the Cabo Verde Islands near 27W from 20N southward through a 1010 mb low at 12N27W, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 15N between 25W and 32W. Some gradual development of this system is possible and there is a slight chance that a tropical depression could form over the next couple of days. Afterward, environmental conditions will become less favorable. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 43W from 20N southward, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered showers are observed east of the wave axis from 08N to 17N between 37W and 41W. A western Atlantic tropical wave is east of the Lesser Antilles near 54W from 19N southward, and moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are seen from 11N to 15N between 50W and 57W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 80W from near the Cayman Islands southward across Panama into the East Pacific, and moving west at 15 kt. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are present from the Island of Youth southwestward to the Honduras coast. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Mauritania-Senegal border across a 1010 mb low at 12N27W to 12N49W. In addition to the convection associated with the tropical waves discussed above, scattered showers are seen south of the trough from 07N to 12N between the Guinea-Bissau/Guinea coast and 25W. There is no ITCZ present based on the latest analysis. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near Panama. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A mid-level trough over the north-central and central Gulf is coupling with convergent ESE winds to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms east of 92W from 23N to the Gulf States coast, including the Florida west coast and Florida Keys. The northern tip of a tropical wave extending northward from the East Pacific/southern Mexico is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the southwestern Gulf. A weak surface ridge extends west-southwestward from a 1021 mb high over the Georgia-Florida border to near Tampico, Mexico. It is sustaining gentle E to SE winds with 2 to 4 ft seas across most of the Gulf, except the Florida Straits which are experiencing moderate ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, the northern tip of the tropical wave will maintain active weather across the SW Gulf through this afternoon. The surface ridge will remain across the northern Gulf through late Wed before weakening W of 90W. Moderate ENE to E winds will briefly pulse to fresh in the eastern Bay of Campeche through Wed night. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are also expected across the Florida Straits and portions of the SE Gulf through Wed. Otherwise, the mid-level trough will continue to enhance showers and isolated thunderstorms east of 92W through Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Convergent trades are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the central basin near 14N71W eastward through the Windward Islands. Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and monsoon trough near Panama/northwestern Colombia continues to promote a NE to E trade-wind regime for much of the basin, except monsoonal winds near Panama. Moderate to fresh with locally strong winds and seas at 7 to 9 ft exist over the central basin. Gentle to moderate winds with 4 to 5 ft seas are evident for the northwestern basin. Light to gentle monsoonal winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft are found in the offshore waters of Panama. Moderate with locally fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail for the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the Bermuda High will remain nearly stationary through Wed before shifting W and weakening. Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will continue through Wed then gradually diminish to fresh through Thu night. The tropical wave near 80W will continue to bring sporadic convection while moving westward across the remainder of the basin through Wed. Another tropical wave will enter the eastern Caribbean on Wed enhancing winds/seas. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail from Fri through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for significant weather in the Atlantic Basin. The combination of the Bermuda and Azores Highs continue to maintain light to gentle winds and 4 to 5 ft seas north of 25N between 35W and the Georgia-Florida coast. NE to ENE gentle to moderate trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found farther south from 12N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, and farther east from 15N to 31N between 25W and 35W. Near the Canary Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are present north of 21N between the northwest African coast and 25W. Gentle to moderate monsoonal and southeasterly winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain centered just NE of Bermuda and dominate the forecast region through Wed before shifting W and weakening. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. $$ Chan