757 AXNT20 KNHC 090420 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Aug 9 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 25W, from 03N to 20N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring mainly ahead of the wave from 09N to 14N, between 24W and 32W. Environmental conditions appear conductive for gradual development over the next several days while the system moves across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. A tropical depression could form by the middle to latter portion of this week before environmental conditions become less favorable by this weekend. The current outlook gives the disturbance a low chance of development within 2 days and a medium chance of development within 5 days. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 40W from 02N to 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 13N to 17N, between 35W and 39W. Another central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 53W, from 02N to 20N moving W at 15 kt. Scattered weak convection is observed from 12N to 15N, between 50W and 55W. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 76W, from 02N to 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed ahead of the wave from 15N to 20N, between 75W to 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 11N51W. In addition to the convection associated with the tropical waves discussed above, scattered moderate convection is observed from 06N to 12N, between 31N and 36N. GULF OF MEXICO... While convection has decreased this evening, isolated thunderstorms are still observed throughout the basin. The strongest convection is observed near the Yucatan Channel. A persistent weak ridge across the northern Gulf is supporting a gentle to moderate E-SE breeze throughout the basin. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range. Expect localized gusts to gale force and choppy seas in and around thunderstorms. For the forecast, the northern portion of a tropical wave is moving across the Bay of Campeche and will maintain active weather across the SW Gulf through tonight. Otherwise the Atlantic surface ridge will extend W along about 31N through late Wed before weakening W of 90W. Fresh NE to E winds will briefly pulse to strong in the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue night and Wed night. A mid to upper-level trough from the Florida Big Bend southward along the W coast of Florida will shift slowly W through Tue night and to the north-central and NW Gulf Wed through Fri, enhancing showers and thunderstorms across those sections of the Gulf. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting enhanced easterly trade winds across the basin. Winds are fresh in the eastern basin with 5-7 ft seas, fresh to strong in the central basin with 6-8 ft seas, and moderate in the NW basin with 3-5 ft seas. Scattered moderate convection is also observed throughout the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, high pressure centered just NE of Bermuda will remain nearly stationary through early Wed before shifting WSW and weakening. Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will continue through Wed then gradually diminish to fresh through Thu night. A tropical wave across the central Caribbean accompanied by active weather will continue to move westward across the remainder of the basin through Wed. Active weather will accompany another tropical wave entering the tropical N Atlc waters late Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda high continues to dominate the pattern in the western Atlantic. Gentle E-SE wind and 3-4 ft seas increase to moderate E wind and 4-6 ft seas south of 27N. Winds further increase to a fresh breeze and 5-7 ft seas south of 25N. Strong winds are possible near the entrance to the Windward Passage. Winds are lighter in the central Atlantic, with a gentle to moderate breeze and 3-6 ft seas throughout. In the eastern Atlantic, a moderate to fresh NE breeze dominates, with strong winds near the Canary Island and along the coast of Western Sahara. Seas are generally 5-7 ft, building to 9 ft in the areas of strong winds. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain centered just NE of Bermuda and dominate the forecast region through early Wed before shifting WSW and weakening. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 25N through early Wed before diminishing. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. A surface trough extending from 30N78W to 27N80W will drift W and inland through Tue. $$ FLYNN