000 AXNT20 KNHC 081655 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Aug 8 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1655 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W, south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 15N and between 18W and 30W. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development and a tropical depression may form around the middle to latter part of the week as the wave moves into the central tropical Atlantic. The current outlook states that the disturbance has a medium chance of development during the next 5 days. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 37W, south of 20N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N and between 34W and 39W. Dusty Saharan air encompasses the wave axis N of 15N, maintaining dry conditions. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W, south of 19N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is present near the trof axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W, south of 21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is underneath an upper- level trough. This feature is supporting an area of scattered moderate convection that trails the wave from 14N to 21N and between 69W and 72W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W to 12N21W to 15N28W to 12N36W to 11N52W. The ITCZ extends from 11N52W to 09N61W. Aside from convection associated to tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is evident within 90 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough between 40W and 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level low in the western Gulf of Mexico and a weak surface trough in the central Bay of Campeche are interacting with plenty of moisture to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the SW and western Gulf. Another upper level disturbance off the SE US coast is also inducing divergence over the NE Gulf, resulting in scattered showers over the eastern portion of the basin. The Gulf remains under the influence of a weak high pressure regime, sustaining light to locally moderate easterly winds E of 90W and light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 2-4 ft across the Gulf. Expect locally stronger winds and rough seas in and near scattered showers and thunderstorms. For the forecast, a nearly stationary upper-level low is over the SW Gulf and will maintain active weather across the W Gulf through this evening. Fresh NE to E winds will briefly pulse to strong in the eastern Bay of Campeche Tue night. A mid to upper-level trough just east of NE Florida will shift to the NE Gulf today through Tue night and to the north-central and NW Gulf Wed through Fri enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity across those sections of the Gulf. Otherwise the Atlantic surface ridge will extend W along about 31N through late Wed before weakening W of 90W. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave in the central Caribbean, low level convergence is supporting a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms in the SW Caribbean, mainly S of 17N and W of 78W, also impacting eastern Nicaragua and NE Costa Rica. Elsewhere, fairly tranquil weather conditions prevail. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds found south of Hispaniola, off NW Colombia and in the Windward Passage. Seas are 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted in the eastern Caribbean and in the lee of Cuba, along with seas of 4-6 ft. In the rest of the basin, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will continue pulsing through the forecast period. A tropical wave across the central Caribbean will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, gusty winds and rough seas as it continues westward across the remainder of the basin through early Wed. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night through the week. The next tropical wave will move across the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Tue through Wed night and across the eastern Caribbean Thu through Fri night enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity over those waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough near the Bahamas is supporting scattered showers S of 24N and between 70W and 77W. Another area of showers is noted off NE Florida in association with a weak surface trough. The remainder of the western Atlantic remains under the dominion of a 1025 mb high pressure system near Bermuda. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned subtropical ridge and lower pressures in the Caribbean results in fresh to locally strong easterly winds S of 25N and between 60W and 77W. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the strongest winds are occurring off northern Hispaniola, NE Cuba and the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas are 5-8 ft in these waters. Light to moderate anticyclonic winds are present in the rest of the western Atlantic, especially W of 55W. Seas are 3-6 ft in the described waters. The central and eastern tropical Atlantic are under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge positioned in the NE Atlantic and together with a dry and dusty Saharan airmass, maintain fairly tranquil weather conditions. Fresh to locally strong NE winds are noted N of 21N and E of 27W, along with seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will remain centered just W of Bermuda and dominate the forecast region during the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 25N through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. A surface trough extends from 31N76W to 27N78W and will shift W and inland through this evening accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms. $$ Delgado