000 AXNT20 KNHC 072207 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Aug 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 18W, south of 21N, moving W at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N to 14N and E of 24W. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system while it moves westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic, and a tropical depression could form around the middle to latter part of this week. Tropical development is not expected in the next 48 hours, but there is a medium chance of development within 5 days. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W, south of 22N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 09N to 16N and between 28W and 35W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W, south of 23N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of where the wave intercepts the monsoon trough near 11N45W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 71W, from Hispaniola southward, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate is observed from 14N to 22N and between 64W and 73W. This convection is capable of bringing localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds to Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic, and Haiti tonight. Rough seas can result from the gusty winds. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 84W, south of 21N and into the eastern Pacific, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident on satellite imagery near the trough axis between the Cayman Islands, Belize, and Mexico. Similar convection is also noted in the SW Caribbean as the wave interacts with the E Pacific monsoon trough, especially S of 14N and W of 77W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 13N32W to 08N52W. The ITCZ extends from 08N52W to 08N60W. Aside from convection primarily associated with the tropical waves described in the section above, scattered moderate convection has developed from 08N to 12N between 35W and 45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A westward driving upper level low in the west-central Gulf of Mexico is inducing scattered moderate convection in the NW Gulf. Meanwhile, the Bermuda subtropical ridge extends southwestward into the Gulf, sustaining moderate to locally fresh easterly winds S of 27N, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Light to gentle easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail to the N. For the forecast, upper-level divergence will continue to support scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the basin through tonight. Due to local effects, fresh NE to E winds will briefly pulse across the SW Gulf waters tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Bay of Campeche tonight enhancing winds and seas. An upper-level low is expected to shift from the Atlantic to the NE Gulf on Mon possibly enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity across this area. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Low level wind convergence is also producing a band of moderate convection through the Leeward Islands and nearby waters. Fresh to locally strong easterly trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are dominating most of the basin, aside from the NW Caribbean and areas S of the eastern extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough. Winds in the NW Caribbean are gentle to moderate, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. S of the Monsoon Trough, winds are light to gentle with seas of 2 to 7 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean will continue pulsing through the forecast period. A tropical wave currently along 70W will continue enhancing convection/winds/seas as it moves west. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail over the western Caribbean through the week. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level low north of the NW Bahamas and a nearby surface trough combine to generate scattered moderate convection N of 26N and W of 73W. Farther south, the northern end of a tropical wave is producing scattered moderate convection through the Turks and Caicos Islands southward to Hispaniola. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are occurring S of 25N and E of 50W. Seas are 4-7 ft in these waters, with the highest seas just N of the Greater Antilles. Locally strong winds are also occurring just offshore Hispaniola and into the Windward Passage. N of 25N and W of 50W, light to locally moderate easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent. In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, the broad subtropical ridge continues to dominate the region as dry Saharan dust travels westward and suppresses the formation of showers and thunderstorms. A weak surface trough is found from 31N37W to 23N51W but no convection is associated to this feature. Light to moderate winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted between 22W and 50W and S of 31N. In the NE Atlantic, mainly E of 22W and N of 22N, fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are affecting the waters offshore Morocco, Western Sahara and the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will dominate the forecast region during the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across most of the area through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. An upper-level low will track from E to W across the northern waters toward NE Florida through tonight enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms over those waters. $$ Konarik