000 AXNT20 KNHC 071753 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Aug 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1705 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 17W, south of 21N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N to 14N and E of 23W. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive for gradual development of this system and a tropical depression could form around the middle to latter part of this week. The formation chance through 5 days is medium at 40%. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W, south of 22N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered convection is present from 09N to 16N and between 35W and 28W. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W, south of 23N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of where the wave intercepts the monsoon trough near 11N42W. Dry and stable Saharan dust envelops the wave N of 11N, suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 67W, south of 22N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate is observed from 14N to 22N and between 64W and 72W. This convection is capable of bringing localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the eastern Greater Antilles and SE Bahamas today. Rough seas can result from the gusty winds. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 82W, south of 21N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident on satellite imagery near the trough axis between the Cayman Islands and Cuba. Similar convection is also noted in the SW Caribbean as the wave interacts with the E Pacific monsoon trough, especially S of 14N and W of 77W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 13N30W to 08N49W. The ITCZ extends from 08N49W to 08N59W. Please see the Tropical Waves section for the convection near the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A westward-moving upper level low in the central Gulf of Mexico and a couple of weak surface features continue to induce the formation of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over most of the basin, especially N of 22N. Meanwhile, the Bermuda subtropical ridge extends southwestward into the Gulf, sustaining moderate to locally fresh easterly winds S of 27N and E of 89W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Light to gentle easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure ridging across the northern Gulf will continue through the next few days maintaining gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Due to local effects, fresh NE to E winds will briefly pulse during the evening and overnight hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula through Mon night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop tonight over the western Gulf waters. Winds and seas may higher in an near this activity. An upper-level low is expected to shift from the Atlantic to the NE Gulf on Mon possibly enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea Aside from the convection associated with tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea, low level wind convergence is producing a line of showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting the Leeward Islands and nearby waters. Similar convection is also occurring in the Gulf of Honduras, especially off Belize. Fresh to locally strong easterly trades are affecting the waters of the central and SW Caribbean Sea, along with seas of 5-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft are noted in the NE Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to moderate easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will continue pulsing through the forecast period. A tropical wave currently along 68W will continue enhancing convection/winds/seas as it moves west. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail over the western Caribbean through the week. Fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper level low north of the NW Bahamas and a nearby surface trough combine to generate numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 27N and W of 72W. Light to gentle easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail in the area described. Farther south, the northern end of a tropical wave is producing some showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly S of 22N and between 66W and 72W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are occurring S of 25N and between 55W and SE Florida. Seas are 3-7 ft in these waters, with the highest seas N of Puerto Rico to the Leeward Islands. Elsewhere N of 25N and W of 55W, light to locally moderate easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are prevalent. In the rest of the tropical Atlantic, the broad subtropical ridge continues to dominate the region as dry Saharan dust travels westward and suppresses the formation of showers and thunderstorms. A weak surface trough is found from 31N37W to 23N49W but no convection is associated to this feature. Light to moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted between 22W and 55W and S of 31N. In the NE Atlantic, mainly E of 22W and N of 22N, fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 4-7 ft are affecting the waters offshore Morocco, Western Sahara and the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure centered near Bermuda will dominate the forecast region during the next several days. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across most of the area through the forecast period. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. An upper-level low will track from E to W across the northern waters toward the general area of NE Florida through late tonight generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over those waters. $$ Delgado