000 AXNT20 KNHC 071029 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Aug 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical has partially emerged offshore Africa. It has its axis along 16W from 05N to 20N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection mainly ahead of the wave from 08N to 13N between the coast of Africa and 21W. Another far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 27W from 06N to 21N moving westward at 15 kt. Small clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection have recently developed within 120 nm west of the wave from 11N to 14N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from 06N to 22N moving westward at 15-20 kt. This wave is moving a through a very stable surrounding atmospheric environment. Only isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm east of the wave from 06N to 10N. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 64W from 05N to 21N. It is moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection behind this wave has decreased in coverage during the past few hours. Satellite imagery shows the convection bounded from 13N to 16N and between 55W and 62W. This convection is capable of bringing localized heavy rainfall and gusty winds to sections of the central Lesser Antilles through the rest of the morning. Rough seas can result from the gusty winds. In addition, scattered moderate convection is developing ahead of the wave from 13N to 14N between 65W-68W. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 80W from 05N to 19N moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is quickly developing in the far southwestern Caribbean ahead of the wave from 10N to 13N between 80W-83W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere south of 15N and west of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W southwestward to 12N30W and to 10N44W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 09N50W and to 07N58W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 30W- 34W, and within 120 nm north of the monsoon trough between 43W- 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level low near 23N93W along with a surface trough analyzed along 92W from 19N to 23N are supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Bay of Campeche. A recent ASCAT pass suggested that strong to near gale-force winds were being generated by this activity. Otherwise, the western extension of high pressure near Bermuda stretches westward across the norther Gulf. Its associated gradient is leading to mainly moderate east-southeast winds and 2-4 ft seas throughout the majority of the Gulf, with the exception of moderate to fresh easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas in the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure across the northern Gulf will continue through the next few days maintaining generally gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Due to local effects, fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds will briefly pulse during the evening and overnight hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula through Mon night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over most of the central and far eastern Gulf waters. Winds and seas may higher in an near this activity. An upper-level low is expected to shift from the Atlantic to the NE Gulf on Mon possibly enhancing shower and thunderstorm activity. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the southwestern Caribbean is supporting a fresh to strong trade winds over the majority of the Caribbean with 5-7 ft seas. An overnight ASCAT pass depicted mostly fresh trade winds in the south-central part of the basin. Conditions are more favorable in the northwestern Caribbean, with moderate easterly winds and 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean will continue through early Thu. Fresh to strong east winds over the eastern Caribbean will shift to the central Caribbean on Monday as the tropical wave currently along 64W tracks through the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will continue over the northwestern Caribbean well into the upcoming week. Mainly fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Mon night, and then again Wed night and Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda High continues to dominate the pattern throughout the subtropical Atlantic. In the western Atlantic, gentle to moderate easterly winds increase to fresh speeds south of about 22N. Strong northeast winds are possible near the entrance to the Windward Passage. In the eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong northeast winds are present near the coast of Western Sahara and the Canary Islands, with moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are generally 3-6 ft across the basin, except for higher seas of 5-7 ft noted from 14N to 22N between 57W-70W. Seas of 2 ft or less are over the waters of the NW and Central Bahamas. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located near Bermuda will dominate the forecast region during the next several days. Its associated gradient will allow for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds N of 25N and moderate to fresh east winds S of 25N through Tue night. Winds S of 25N will be mainly moderate Wed and Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. An upper-level low will track from E to W across the northern waters toward the general area of NE Florida through late tonight generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over those waters. $$ Aguirre