000 AXNT20 KNHC 070406 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Aug 7 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Scattered moderate convection is observed from 09N to 16N, between the coast of Africa and 20W. This convection precedes a new tropical wave that will enter the Atlantic later today. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 24W, from 06N to 21N, moving W at 15 kt. Convection has diminished substantially overnight. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 38W, from 06N to 22N, moving W at 15 kt. No significant convection is occurring near this wave. A tropical wave has just crossed into the Caribbean, extending along 62W from 05N to 21N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed behind the wave from 12N to 16N, between 55W and 61W. This convection will bring periods of heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the central Lesser Antilles overnight and through the morning. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave extends along 78W, from 05N to 19N, moving W at 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed in the SW Caribbean and near the lee of Cuba, including the Cayman Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W to 11N40W. The ITCZ continues from 11N40W to 08N56W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the monsoon trough from 09N to 13N, between 28W and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough stretching across the central Gulf is supporting isolated showers and thunderstorms from the Yucatan Peninsula to NE basin. Otherwise high pressure near Bermuda continues to dominate the basin with mainly moderate E-SE winds and 2-4 ft seas throughout the majority of the Gulf, with the exception of fresh easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas in the Florida Straits. For the forecast, high pressure ridging over the northern Gulf will continue through the next few days maintaining generally gentle to moderate winds and slight seas. Due to local effects, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will briefly pulse during the evening and overnight hours west of the Yucatan Peninsula through Mon night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over most of the central Gulf and far eastern Gulf waters. Winds and seas may higher in an near this activity. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean is supporting a fresh to strong easterly breeze across the majority of the Caribbean with 5-7 ft seas. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed a strong E breeze in the south-central basin. Conditions are more favorable in the NW Caribbean with moderate easterly winds and 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the south- central Caribbean will continue through Tue night. Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean through Sun with the passage of a tropical wave. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will continue over the northwestern Caribbean into early next week. Mainly fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras at night through Mon night, and then again Wed night and Thu night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda High continues to dominate the pattern throughout the subtropical Atlantic. In the western Atlantic, gentle to moderate easterlies increase to a fresh breeze south of about 22N. Strong NE winds are possible near the entrance to the Windward Passage. In the eastern Atlantic, a recent scatterometer pass observed a fresh to strong breeze near the coast of Western Sahara and the Canary Islands with moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are generally 3-6 ft across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure located near Bermuda will dominate the forecast region during the next several days. Its associated gradient will allow for gentle to moderate east to southeast winds N of 25N and moderate to fresh east winds S of 25N through Tue night. Winds S of 25N will be mainly moderate Wed and Wed night. Fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through Wed night. An upper-level low will track from E to W across the northern waters toward the general area of NE Florida through Sun night generating scattered showers and thunderstorms over those waters. $$ Flynn