000 AXNT20 KNHC 031542 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Aug 3 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1520 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is off the coast of Africa along 18W from 07N to 24N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection accompanies the wave from 09N-19N between the coast of Africa and 20W. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33/34W from 04N-21N, moving west around 15 kt. No significant convection is currently occurring in association with this tropical wave. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51/52W from 04N-20N, moving west around 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is seen near the wave axis, south of 13N. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86/87W from 17N southward through central Honduras and NW Nicaragua to the east Pacific, and moving west near 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over SE Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of northern Mauritania near 20N16W to 14N25W to 1012 mb low pressure near 14N32W to 11N35W. The ITCZ continues from 11N35W to 09N38W to 10N50W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 10N53W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N-12.5N between 53W-62W. GULF OF MEXICO... Broad surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1018 mb high pressure over the northeast Gulf near 28N85W. An upper-level trough axis extends from western North Carolina southwestward to near Houston, Texas. Upper-level diffluence to the south of this upper-level trough axis is enhancing scattered moderate thunderstorms over the north-central and northeast Gulf of Mexico, north of 26N and east of 93.5W. Moderate S winds and wave heights up to 4 ft are currently being observed by buoys off the coast of southern Texas. Seas are likely also 3-4 ft over the central Bay of Campeche. Gentle wind speeds and 1-3 ft seas prevail elsewhere. Somewhat stronger winds and higher seas are possible in any of the stronger thunderstorms. For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf into Sun. Fresh E winds will briefly pulse during the evening hours through mid week west of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough axis extends southwestward from an upper- level low near 24N63W to the Dominican Republic, then westward to the Yucatan Peninsula. The upper-trough is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over portions of the northern Caribbean Sea from 17N-22N between 72W-85W. Another upper-level trough axis extends from Puerto Rico southeastward to Suriname. Numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection is noted near where the western end of the ITCZ passes underneath the upper-level trough, south of 12N and east of 64W, including over Trinidad. In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection south of 13N and west of 74W, including over SE Nicaragua. A recent ASCAT satellite pass shows fresh trades across the south-central Caribbean Sea, where an altimeter pass from 03/0830 UTC showed seas of 7 to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail elsewhere over the eastern and central Caribbean, with seas of 4-6 ft. Gentle to moderate E winds are occurring over the NW Caribbean, where seas are 3-4 ft. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong over the south-central Caribbean. Winds will freshen over the eastern Caribbean through Sun. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will persist over the northwest Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad upper-level low is centered near 23N64W. A surface trough is near the same area, oriented from 31N63W to 26N65W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 24N-31N between 61W-68W. Recent scatterometer data shows a surface ridge axis extending across the Atlantic from a 1025 mb high pressure near 33N39W to Bermuda to the coast of Florida near 29N81W. Gentle E to SE winds and 2-4 ft seas generally prevail north of 25N and west of 50W. Moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas are south of 25N. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail across the E Atlantic, east of 35W and north of 25N, increasing to fresh to strong near the Canary Islands and the coast of Morocco. Seas are 5-7 ft in this area. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted across the tropical Atlantic, to the east of the Lesser Antilles, with 5-7 ft seas. A cluster of moderate to strong convection induced by an upper-level trough and the ITCZ extends eastward from Trinidad, from 08.5N-12N between 59W-63W. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge along 30N lifting north of the area will maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas over most of the area through Sun. Farther south, fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoons and overnight hours through late Sun. $$ Hagen