132 AXNT20 KNHC 011739 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Aug 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 23W, south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Convection is described in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W, south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 40W and 45W. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 69W, south of 16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is located east of the wave axis, from 13N to 15N between 70W and 73W. A W Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 83W, south of 20N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted in the SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 11N22W to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N45W to the coast of Guyana near 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm on both sides of the ITCZ and Monsoon Trough. GULF OF MEXICO... High pressure ridging associated with the western periphery of the subtropical Atlantic high continues to guide conditions in the Gulf of Mexico. At 1500 UTC, a surface trough is analyzed in the Bay of Campeche from 23N92W to 19N94W. Scattered moderate convection is pulsing west of the trough in the SW Gulf to the coast of Mexico. Another weak surface trough is analyzed in the NE Gulf. Light to gentle return flow prevails with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the northern Gulf will continue to support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the week. Fresh E winds will pulse during the evening hours through mid week west of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer data depicts an area of strong to near gale force trades in the south central Caribbean, from 11N to 15N between 73W and 77W. These winds, combined with fresh trades across the remainder of the central Caribbean, are generating 8-12 ft seas in E swell from 10N to 17N between 70W and 81W, highest near 11N78W. In the E Caribbean, trades are moderate to fresh and seas are 6-8 ft. In the NW Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will persist over the central Caribbean into mid-week, then will diminish slightly. The eastern Caribbean will experience moderate to fresh trades, while the northwest Caribbean can expect mainly gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... 1023 mb high pressure is centered near 29N70W. A weak stationary front enters the area near 31N48W and continues to 31N56W. High pressure ridging dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. The latest scatterometer data shows gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin. Seas are 3-6 ft, with lowest seas in the W Atlantic near the FL Coast and the N Bahamas. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge will prevail along 30N through Tue, then will lift north of the area. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoon and overnight hours through tonight. $$ Mahoney