000 AXNT20 KNHC 010405 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Mon Aug 1 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 21W, south of 20N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 10N to 13N and between 19W and 23W. The northern portion of the wave is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 39W, south of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the trough axis, mainly S of 10N. The northern portion of the wave is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass. An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 65W, south of 16N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A few showers are occurring near the trough axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 80W, south of 22N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen near the trough axis, N of 17N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16W to 12N27W to 09N38W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to 04N51W. Scattered showers are evident on satellite imagery near the monsoon trough axis between 23W and 36W. Similar convection is also present from 06N to 10N and between 47W and 57W. GULF OF MEXICO... Afternoon and evening thunderstorm activity over the Yucatan peninsula has spilled into the Bay of Campeche, sending weakening but fast-moving showers on a westward trajectory. Elsewhere in the basin, divergence aloft and plenty of tropical moisture result in scattered showers over a good portion of the northern and western Gulf. Gentle moderate anticyclonic winds dominate the Gulf waters. The exception are locally fresh winds in the SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits, and off northern and western Yucatan. Seas are 4-6 ft in the area of locally fresh winds, while 2-4 ft prevail in the remainder of the Gulf. For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the middle of next week. Fresh E winds will pulse during the evening hours through mid week west of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between the 1025 mb subtropical high positioned SW of Bermuda and lower pressures in northern South America support fresh to locally near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south-central. The strongest winds are found offshore NW Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas in these waters are 8-11 ft. In the remainder of the central Caribbean, fresh to strong trades and seas of 5-8 ft prevail. Fresh to occasionally strong trade winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere in the basin, gentle to locally fresh trades and seas of 2-5 ft are prevalent. A few showers are noted off NE Nicaragua, while the rest of the Caribbean enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas will persist over the central Caribbean through mid-week, then will diminish slightly. The eastern Caribbean will experience moderate to fresh trades, while the northwest Caribbean can expect mainly gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive subtropical ridge continues to be the most prominent feature across the tropical Atlantic, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. This is accentuated by large outbreak of dry and dusty Saharan air that moves westward through the Atlantic waters. The pressure gradient mentioned in the Caribbean Sea section is also responsible for fresh to strong easterly winds S of 24N and W of 66W, with the strongest winds occurring off northern Hispaniola and the entrance of the Windward Passage, as shown by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere in the basin, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will prevail along 30N through Tue, then will lift north of the area. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage during the late afternoon and overnight hours through Mon night. Fresh trades will prevail in the Old Bahama Channel through Mon. $$ Delgado