000 AXNT20 KNHC 311608 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Jul 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 18W from 20N to 04N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is observed from 10N-14N, between 16W-23W. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 35W from 20N to 02N, moving W at 20 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak. A western Atlantic tropical wave extends along 59W from 20N to 04N, moving W at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is mainly observed ahead of the wave from 11N-15N, between 57W-68W. A recent scatteromter found strong to near gale force winds near the strongest convection in the eastern Caribbean. A central Caribbean tropical wave extends along 75W from 21N to 05N, moving W at 20 kt. Associated convection is isolated and weak. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N17W to 10N35W. The ITCZ continues from 08N40W to 04N51W. Convection is limited outside of the tropical waves. GULF OF MEXICO... Divergent flow aloft associated with an upper low centered over the west-central Gulf is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the majority of the basin. Weak high pressure extends across the northern Gulf, supporting a gentle to moderate SE breeze outside of thunderstorms. Seas are generally 2-4 ft throughout the basin. For the forecast, an upper-level low will move westward across the western Gulf today, and will enhance scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the basin. Weak surface ridging extending across the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the middle of next week. Fresh E winds will pulse during the evening hours through the early part of the week west of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between subtropical high pressure and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting a fresh easterly breeze throughout the central and eastern Caribbean where seas are generally 6-8 ft, with 7-9 ft in the southern Colombian basin and Gulf of Darien. Conditions are more favorable in the NW Caribbean where easterly winds are moderate and seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will expand in areal coverage through tonight and Mon, with building seas. Winds and seas will diminish by mid-week. The eastern Caribbean will experience fresh trades, while the northwest Caribbean can expect mainly moderate E winds through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1025 mb high pressure in the subtropical western Atlantic centered near 30N66W is dominating the pattern. Winds are gentle north of 25N with 3-5 ft seas, increasing to moderate easterlies south of 25N with 4-6 ft seas. Fresh easterlies are observed from the the Old Bahama Channel to the waters offshore Hispaniola, including the northern terminus of the Windward Passage. Conditions are similar in the central Atlantic with gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas increasing to moderate E-NE winds and 4-6 ft seas south of 20-25N. In the eastern Atlantic, NE winds are generally moderate with fresh to strong NE winds along the coast of Africa and near the Canary Islands. Seas are 4-6 ft in the area. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will prevail along 30N through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the late afternoons and overnight hours through Mon night. Fresh trades will prevail in the Old Bahama Channel through Mon. $$ Flynn