000 AXNT20 KNHC 310958 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Jul 31 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave was added to the analysis along the coast of Senegal at 17W. The wave is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident along the wave axis from 12N to 14N. An Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 33W, south of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is associated with this wave as it remains embedded within in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W, south of 22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are noted from 11N to 13N and between 60W and 63W. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W, south of 22N, extending across Hispaniola and into NE Colombia. The wave is moving W at 20 kt. No significant showers or thunderstorms are noted along this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 09N35W. The ITCZ extends from 09N35W to 03N51W. No deep convection is evident due to the dry and dusty Saharan airmass encompassing the region. GULF OF MEXICO... Divergent flow aloft associated with an upper low centered over the west- central Gulf near 23N94W is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the basin this morning. Weak high pressure extends across the northern Gulf, supporting light breezes and slight seas over the northeast and north-central Gulf. Recent buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data indicate moderate E to SE winds elsewhere, with 3 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, the upper-level low will move westward across the western Gulf today, and will continue to enhance scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the basin. The weak surface ridging extending across the northern Gulf will continue to support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the middle of next week. Fresh E winds will pulse during the evening hours through the early part of the week west of the Yucatan Peninsula due to a diurnal trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds across the Windward Passage, and over the central Caribbean between Colombia and Hispaniola. The pass also showed winds are approaching near-gale force off Colombia. Concurrent altimeter passes indicated seas were reaching as high as 9 ft south of the Cabo Beata area of Hispaniola. Seas are likely reaching as high as 11 ft in area of near-gale force winds off Colombia. Mostly moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Numerous showers and a few thunderstorms are active across the Windward Islands ahead of an approaching tropical wave. An upper low centered over Grand Cayman is supporting a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms near 15N76W. For the forecast, a tropical wave between Haiti and northeast Colombia will move into the western Caribbean through Mon. Fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean will expand in areal coverage with building seas through Mon following the tropical wave, then diminish by mid-week. Meanwhile, the eastern Caribbean will experience fresh trades, while the northwest Caribbean can expect mainly moderate E winds through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge extends north of 27N, anchored by 1025 mb high pressure centered near 30N54W. The northern extent of a tropical wave reaches from south of 22N through Haiti, with another wave extending south of 22N along 57W. The gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds funneling off the northern coast of Hispaniola. Seas are likely up to 7 ft in this area, and in the northern approaches to the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds are evident elsewhere south of 25N west of 35W, with 4 to 6 ft in open waters, except for near 7 ft off the Leeward Islands. Gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted north of 25N and west of 35W. East of 35W, fresh to strong NE winds with 7 to 9 ft seas are noted north of 15N, with gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft south of 15N. For the forecast west of 55W, the ridge along 30N will change little through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the late afternoons and during the overnight hours through Mon night. Fresh trades will prevail in the Old Bahama Channel through Mon. $$ Christensen