000
AXNT20 KNHC 310426
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sun Jul 31 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0355 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 32W, south
of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is associated
with this wave as it remains embedded within in a dry and dusty 
Saharan airmass. 
 
A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W, south of
22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted from 10N to 14N and between 47W and 56W.

A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 71W, south 
of 22N, extending across Hispaniola and into W Venezuela and E
Colombia. The wave is moving W at 20 kt. A few showers are noted 
in Hispaniola and nearby waters.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Mauritania near 20N16W to 11N31W. The ITCZ extends from 10N33W to
02N50W. No deep convection is evident due to the dry and dusty
Saharan airmass encompassing the region.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak high pressure regime dominates the Gulf of Mexico,
supporting gentle to occasionally fresh anticyclonic winds across
the basin. Seas are 3-6 ft in the western, central and SE Gulf,
and 1-3 ft across the coastal waters from SW Florida to the Bay of
Campeche. An upper level-low over the SW Gulf is producing scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms over most of the Gulf. 

For the forecast, an upper-level low moving westward across the 
southwest Gulf will continue to enhance scattered showers and 
thunderstorms through Sun. Elsewhere, weak surface ridging 
extending across the northern Gulf Coast will support gentle to 
moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the
middle of next week. Fresh E winds will pulse during the evening 
hours Sun and Mon evenings to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula due 
to a diurnal trough.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between the 1025 mb subtropical high
near Bermuda and lower pressures in northern South America 
sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the central and SW
Caribbean. The strongest winds are found offshore NW Colombia, 
Gulf of Venezuela, southern Hispaniola and the Windward Passage, 
as shown by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are 6-9 ft
in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades are noted in 
the eastern Caribbean, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, light
to moderate winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail. A few showers are 
affecting the waters off Yucatan and SE Nicaragua. A line of 
showers is also observed impacting the Windward Islands and 
surrounding waters. Otherwise, a dry atmosphere is suppressing 
the development of showers and thunderstorms in the remainder of 
the basin.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the
central Caribbean through Sun. The strong winds will expand in 
areal coverage Sun night through Mon following a tropical wave 
moving across the basin. Seas will build across the central 
Caribbean during that time. Winds and seas will diminish by mid- 
week. Meanwhile, the eastern Caribbean will experience fresh 
trades, while the northwest Caribbean can expect mainly moderate E
winds into the middle of next week. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad subtropical ridge continues to dominate the tropical
Atlantic and along with a large area of dry and dusty Saharan air,
the formation of showers and thunderstorms in the basin remains 
suppressed. Fresh to strong easterly winds are noted S of 25N and
W of 66W, with the strongest winds occurring off northern
Hispaniola and the entrance to the Windward Passage. Seas are 4-7
ft in the waters described. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and seas of 4-7 ft are present from 10N to 23N and between
35W and the Lesser Antilles. E of 35W, especially N of 15N, moderate
to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are prevalent, 
with the strongest winds affecting the waters off Morocco and the 
passages of the Canary Islands. In the remainder of the basin, 
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge along 30N will change little
through Tue. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola
and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the late 
afternoons and during the overnight hours through Mon night. Fresh
trades will prevail in the Old Bahama Channel through Sun night 
before diminishing to moderate early next week.

$$
Delgado