000 AXNT20 KNHC 301607 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sat Jul 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends along 27W, from 21N to 02N, moving W at 15 kt. Convection is limited as this feature is embedded in the dry and dusty Saharan air mass. A central Atlantic tropical wave extends along 53W, from 22N to 05N, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 11N-14N between 50W-54W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave extends along 67W, from 21N to 06N, moving W at 20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is observed along the northern half of the wave, including western Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 10N31W. The ITCZ continues from 10N31W to 12N49W. Isolated showers are observed within 60 nm of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A ridge of high pressure extends across the northern Gulf, with lower pressure over southern Mexico. This pattern is generating moderate E-SE winds across the majority of the basin. An upper level low over the south-central Gulf is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms in the eastern and southwestern portion of the Gulf. Seas are generally 3-5 ft outside of coastal waters. For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the middle of next week. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh E winds will pulse during the evening hours due to a trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings and moves westward overnight. CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between the subtropical high and lower pressure in the SW Caribbean is supporting enhanced easterly trade winds across the basin. In the eastern Caribbean winds are fresh with 4-6 ft seas. In the central Caribbean winds are strong with mainly 6-8 ft seas and an area of 8-10 ft seas south of 14N, between 74W and 78W. In the NW Caribbean, winds are moderate with 3-5 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail across the central Caribbean this weekend. The strong winds will expand in areal coverage Sun night through Mon following a tropical wave moving across the basin. Seas will build across the central Caribbean during that time. The eastern Caribbean will experience fresh trades, while the northwest Caribbean can expect mainly moderate E winds into the middle of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A subtropical high pressure ridge extends along 28N-30N in the western Atlantic. Winds are gentle within the ridge, increasing to moderate easterlies south of 27N. Seas are 2-4 ft north of 27N and 4-6 ft south of 27N. Moderate to fresh NE winds dominate the eastern Atlantic with 4-8 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge along 30N will change little through Mon, then shift slightly south Mon night through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the late afternoons and during the overnight hours through early next week. Fresh trades will prevail in the Old Bahama Channel through Sun night before diminishing to moderate early next week. $$ Flynn