000 AXNT20 KNHC 300455 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jul 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0444 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 24W, south of 21N, moving W at 15 kt. No deep convection is associated with this feature as it is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 50W, south of 22N, moving W at 15-20 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 62W, south of 22N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are occurring near the trough axis, primarily from 13N to 22N. The passage of this wave will increase the rain chances across the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and during most of the weekend. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W to 14N25W to 11N32W. The ITCZ extends from 11N32W to 09N37W to 11N49W and continues from 11N51W to 08N61W. No significant convection is currently observed associated with the monsoon trough or ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... The interaction between an upper level low in the central Gulf of Mexico and a weak surface trough in the Yucatan Channel result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SE Gulf, mainly S of 27N and E of 91W. Elsewhere, the weather conditions are fairly tranquil. A recent scatterometer satellite pass show moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 27N and E of 95W, while light to locally moderate anticyclonic winds are evident in the rest of the basin. Seas of 4-6 ft prevail S of 27N, while seas of 2-4 ft are present N of 27N. The highest seas are occurring in the SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits. For the forecast, weak surface ridging extending across the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the middle of next week. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh NE to E winds will pulse during the evening hours through tonight due to a trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings and moves westward overnight. CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft and a weak surface trough in the Yucatan Channel allow for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the waters N of 19N and W of 77W. A few showers are also noted in the eastern Caribbean Sea, associated with the tropical wave described in the Tropical Waves section. Elsewhere, the weather conditions are fairly tranquil. The tight pressure gradient associated with the subtropical ridge south of Bermuda and lower pressures in northern South America results in fresh to strong easterly trade winds affecting the south- central Caribbean, with the strongest winds found offshore NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the area through Sun, except for pulsing fresh to strong winds every evening over the waters off Colombia, in the Gulf of Venezuela and just south of Hispaniola. Looking ahead, winds and seas will build over the central Caribbean Sun night through early next week following a tropical wave moving across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive 1029 mb subtropical ridge near the Azores remains the most prominent feature across the tropical Atlantic, maintaining generally tranquil weather conditions. This is accentuated by a dry and dusty Saharan airmass continues to travel westward across the basin, suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. Latest satellite- derived wind data and surface observations indicate that fresh to locally strong easterly winds are affecting the waters S of 25N and W of 55W, with the strongest winds occurring off northern Hispaniola, NE Cuba and the SE Bahamas, including the entrance of the Windward Passage. Seas are 5-8 ft S of 25N and W of 55W, and 3-5N elsewhere W of 55W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted between 35W and 55W. E of 35W, especially N of 15N, moderate to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft are prevalent, with the strongest winds affecting the waters off Morocco and the passages of the Canary Islands. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge along 30N will change little through Mon, then shift slightly south Mon night through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the late afternoons and during the overnight hours through early next week. $$ Delgado