984 AXNT20 KNHC 292319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jul 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 22W from 04N to 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is associated with this feature as it remains embedded in a rather dense area of Saharan Air Layer dust. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W/48W from 05N to 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm either side of the wave from from 09N to 14N. Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 60W/61W south of 22N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted within 60 nm west of the wave from 13N to 17N. This wave is expected to lead to increasing shower and thunderstorm activity over the eastern Caribbean tonight through late Sat. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 20N16W and dips south-southwestward to 14N20W and to 09N24W and to 08N35W. No significant convection is observed at the present time. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level diffluent pattern present to the east of a rather large upper low that is centered over north- central Mexico is supporting a scattered moderate convection over the western Gulf from 20N to 26N and west of 94W to about 60 nm inland the coast of Mexico. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are evident elsewhere over the basin, primarily south of 26N. Otherwise, weak surface high pressure ridging over the northern Gulf is maintaining gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, the weak surface high pressure ridging over the northern Gulf will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through the middle of next week. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse during the evening hours through tonight due to a trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings and moves westward overnight. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low gradually shifting westward toward the south- central Gulf of Mexico is noted on water vapor imagery to be just northwest of the western tip of Cuba. It is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms that are north of 18N and from Jamaica west to inland the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also over the interior of Cuba. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are over the southern part of the Windward Passage near 19N75W, and over the south-central and southwestern sections of the basin. High pressure ridging north of the area is maintaining moderate to locally fresh trade winds across the eastern, central, and in the southwestern Caribbean along with 4-6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate trade winds are over the northwestern Caribbean, where seas are in the 3-5 ft range W of 85W and 2-4 ft between 80W-85W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the area through Sun, except for pulsing fresh to strong winds every evening over the waters off Colombia, in the Gulf of Venezuela and just south of Hispaniola. Looking ahead, winds and seas will build over the central Caribbean Sun night through early next week in the wake of a tropical wave that moving across the basin. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1032 mb high pressure center analyzed near 29N65W is an extension of the subtropical ridge, and the Azores High north of the area. The feature continues to influence the wind and weather regime of the tropical Atlantic. Afternoon ASCAT data passes show gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow across the basin west of about 30W, with moderate to fresh northeast winds east of 30W. Of note, fresh E winds were detected near the NE coast of Cuba and on approaches to the Windward Passage. The ridge-dominated pattern in recent weeks has allowed for seas to calm to 3-6 ft across most of the tropical Atlantic, with lower seas of 2-4 ft in the northwest section of these waters. Seas are much higher, 6-10 ft east of 30W, where northeast trade winds are present. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging along 29N will change little through Mon, then shift slightly south Mon night through Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the late afternoons and during the overnight hours through early next week. $$ Aguirre