000 AXNT20 KNHC 290508 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jul 29 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced along 17W, south of 20N based on satellite imagery, Hovmoller diagram and wave diagnostic data. The wave is moving W at 15-20 kt. No deep convection is associated with this feature as it is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 43W, south of 21N, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the southern portion of the wave axis, from 01N to 09N and between 37W and 49W. The northern portion is surrounded by a dry and dusty Saharan airmass. Another central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 57W, south of 22N and moving W near 15 kt. A few showers are noted east of the northern portion of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 11N30W to 06N43W. The ITCZ extends from 05N44W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 08N and between 27W and 31W. The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon reaches the SW Caribbean through the coast of Costa Rica to northern Colombia. A few showers are present near the trough axis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A weak upper level low and abundant tropical moisture are producing isolated showers over the western Gulf of Mexico. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are also present west of Pinar del Rio, Cuba, in the SE Gulf. Elsewhere, the weather conditions are fairly tranquil under a weak high pressure regime. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are found in the SE Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche, along with seas of 3-5 ft. The highest seas are occurring in the Florida Straits. In the rest of the Gulf, gentle to locally moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 1-3 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, broad surface high pressure ridging will support gentle to moderate winds and slight seas across most of the Gulf through early next week. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse over the next several nights due to the typical diurnal trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level low in the central Bahamas and plenty of moisture in the NW Caribbean allows for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms to affect the waters north of a line from Jamaica to the NE tip of the Yucatan peninsula, including the Windward Passage. A couple of showers are also noted north of the ABC islands near 14N68W. The rest of the Caribbean Sea enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds prevail across the basin, except for light to gentle winds between Jamaica and NE Honduras. Seas of 3-6 ft are prevalent across the Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate seas are expected across the area through late Sun, except for pulsing fresh winds every evening over the waters off Colombia. Looking ahead, winds and seas will build over the south-central Caribbean early next week following a tropical wave moving across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The subtropical ridge near 29N67W dominates the western tropical Atlantic (W of 55W), sustaining moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 25N and seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere W of 55W, light to locally moderate anticyclonic winds and seas of 3-4 ft prevail. An upper level low in the central Bahamas is generating a few shallow showers that are affecting the Bahamian waters and the Florida Straits. The central and eastern Atlantic remain under the influence of a 1029 mb high pressure system centered near the Azores. Recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to locally fresh winds prevail W of 30W, along with seas of 4-7 ft. A surface trough is found along 53W, extending from 18N to 28N, and a few shallow showers are present near the trough axis. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather conditions. In the NE tropical Atlantic, especially N of 20N and E of 30W, satellite- derived wind data show fresh to strong N-NE winds, affecting the waters off Western Saharan and the Canary Islands. Seas in this area are 7-10 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge along 30N will change little through Mon night, then shift slightly south Tue and Tue night as a cold front approaches the southeastern U.S. Fresh to strong winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage in the late afternoons and during the overnight hours into early next week. $$ Delgado