000 AXNT20 KNHC 270517 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jul 27 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 26W, south of 24N and moving W near 20 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry and dusty Saharan airmass that is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms. No deep convection is associated with this feature. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 42W, south of 18N and moving W near 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the northern portion of the wave. However, this wave is also embedded in the dry and dusty Saharan airmass previously mentioned. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 88W, south of 20N, extending from eastern Yucatan, across Honduras and El Salvador, into the eastern Pacific and moving W near 10-15 kt. Plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft support scattered moderate to isolated strong convection S of 20N and W of 84W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 19N16W to 11N32W to 08N48W. The ITCZ extends from 08N48W to the coast of Suriname near 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 07N and between 26W to 39W. A few showers are also noted S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ to 03N and W of 43W. The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough reaches the SW Caribbean Sea through the border of Costa Rica and Panama to northern Colombia. A few showers are present near this feature. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough in the NE Gulf of Mexico and a trough aloft are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the eastern Gulf, especially in the Florida Straits. Meanwhile, weakening storms that developed in the Yucatan peninsula are pushing into the eastern Bay of Campeche. The rest of the Gulf enjoys generally tranquil weather conditions. The subtropical ridge near Bermuda extends southwestward into the Gulf waters, maintaining light to moderate wind anticyclonic winds. However, locally fresh winds are likely across the Florida Straits and eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas of 1-3 ft prevail across the Gulf, except for 3-4 ft in the SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits, and the eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, surface ridging dominates the Gulf of Mexico, allowing for gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas to prevail through the forecast period. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh to strong easterly winds will pulse each night over the next few days due to the typical diurnal trough that develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak upper level trough and abundant moisture in the NW Caribbean Sea is producing scattered showers near the Cayman Islands and the lee of Cuba. The central and eastern Caribbean are fairly tranquil due to the dry and dusty Saharan airmass encompassing the area. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds are found in the central Caribbean. The strongest winds occurring in the waters offshore southern Hispaniola and NW Colombia, as shown in a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas are 5-7 ft in the described waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted in the eastern Caribbean, along with seas of 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to locally fresh winds, primarily in the Gulf of Honduras, and seas of 2-4 ft are prevalent. For the forecast, the pressure gradient in the central Caribbean will support pulsing fresh to strong east winds through tonight, then moderate to fresh winds will prevail through Sat before increasing back to fresh to strong Sat night. Moderate to fresh winds and gentle to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the week, briefly fresh to strong north of central Honduras Wed night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Abundant moisture and divergence aloft is producing some showers and isolated thunderstorms between SE Florida and the NW Bahamas. The rest of the western tropical Atlantic (W of 55W), enjoys tranquil weather conditions as dry and dusty Saharan air dominates the region. The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb subtropical high E of Bermuda and lower pressures in the Caribbean Sea result in fresh to locally strong easterly winds S of 25N and W of 55W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the strongest winds are occurring offshore Hispaniola and at the entrance of the Windward Passage. Elsewhere W of 55W, light to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail. Seas of 5-7 ft are found S of 25N and W of 55W, and 4-5 ft N of 25N. Farther east, a weak surface trough along 40W, from 20N to 25N, and divergence aloft, results in a few showers near the trough axis. The remainder of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic is dominated by the Azores high and the previously-mentioned Saharan airmass, maintaining tranquil weather conditions. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are present from 12N to 30N and between 35W and the Lesser Antilles. In the NE Atlantic, especially N of 27N and E of 20W, fresh to near gale- force N-NE winds are affecting the waters off Morocco and the passages in the Canary Islands, along with seas of 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, an upper-level trough currently over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will continue enhancing convection/winds/seas mainly west of 76W tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge along 30N will change little through the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the late afternoons and at nights north of Hispaniola and in the approaches to the Windward Passage through Wed, then again this weekend. $$ Delgado