000 AXNT20 KNHC 251751 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jul 25 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 34W from 20N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 10N between 30W and 36W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is near 66W from Puerto Rico southward into Venezuela, and moving west near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over west-central Venezuela and the northeastern Caribbean Sea, including the northern Windward Islands. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 86W from 20N southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted over the Honduras-Nicaragua border and nearby waters, and also near the Cayman Islands. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Mauritania coast near Nouakchott across the southern Cabo Verde Islands and 12N30W to 10N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted south of the trough from 06N to 12N between the Guinea- Bissau/Guinea coast and 30W, and farther west from 03N to 09N between 36W and 47W. The eastern end of the East Pacific Monsoon trough is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over central Panama, northwestern Colombia and adjacent Caribbean Waters. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper-level trough extends northwestward from the central Gulf to near Galveston, Texas. Divergent flow near and north of this feature is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the north-central, northeastern and east-central Gulf. Otherwise a surface ridge reaches southwestward from a 1020 mb high over the Mississippi-Georgia border to near Tampico, Mexico. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are present across the northern Gulf, while gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft exist for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will sustain gentle to moderate winds and gentle seas across the region through the forecast period. The exception will be the Bay of Campeche, where fresh easterly winds will pulse each night over the next few days due to a diurnal trough developing over the Yucatan Peninsula and moving west. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for convection across the basin. A 1026 mb Bermuda/Azores High continues to channel easterly trades across the entire basin. Moderate to fresh winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are seen across the central and eastern basin. Gentle monsoonal winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident for the waters near Panama. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, a relatively tight pressure gradient in the central Caribbean will support pulsing fresh to strong east winds through Tue, then moderate to fresh winds through the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds and gentle to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough over eastern Cuba and the southeast Bahamas, along with an upper-level low near the northwest Bahamas are generating isolated thunderstorms from the Greater Antilles northward across the Bahamas to off the central Florida coast. Another upper-level low near 31N29W and associated trough are producing scattered moderate convection west of the Canary Islands, and northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands north of 21N between 29W and 38W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. The Bermuda/Azores High is providing light to gentle winds with 4 to 5 ft seas north of 27N between 36W and the Georgia/northern Florida coast. Further south, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted from 11N to 27N between 40W and the Bahamas/Less Antilles. Near the Canary Islands, gentle to moderate N to NE trades and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident north of 23N between the northwest African coast and 36W/40W. Light to gentle with locally moderate monsoonal and southerly winds, and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge related to the Bermuda/Azores High will sustain pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds N of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward and Mona Passages at nighttime through the period. The aforementioned surface trough will reach the central Bahamas this afternoon and tonight, and South Florida on Tue. An increase in winds and seas is expected with the trough. $$ Chan