000 AXNT20 KNHC 240603 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jul 24 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W, from 21N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 08N to 19N between 19W and 27W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W/52W, from 19N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 240 nm to the west of the tropical wave from 12N to 16N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W, from 20N southward, moving westward 10 knots. The tropical wave is moving through an area of upper level anticyclonic wind flow that is in the western Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from Haiti westward. A tropical wave is inland along 92W in the easternmost sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, from 19N southward, moving westward from 5 knots to 10 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 12N to 19N between 87W and 93W, including in Central America and in the surrounding coastal waters of the eastern Pacific Ocean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the SW coastal areas of Mauritania near 17N16W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 15N22W, 12N30W 10N41W. The ITCZ continues from 10N41W to 07N50W. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 400 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, inland, between 09W and 14W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to 400 nm to the south of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 27W and 45W. Isolated moderate is within 300 nm to the north of the monsoon trough/ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes from a 30N74W Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center, to the central sections of the Florida west coast, to a Gulf of Mexico 25N95W upper level cyclonic circulation center. An outflow boundary is about 90 nm to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N northward from 90W eastward, and from 25N southward from 86W westward. A surface ridge passes through north central Florida, into the west central Gulf of Mexico, to the southwestern corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds, and sea heights that range from 1 foot to 3 feet, cover much of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds, and sea heights that range from 2 feet to 4 feet, are in the SE Gulf, including the Florida Straits, and to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula. A surface ridge extends westward across Florida into the Gulf of Mexico, from the Bermuda-Azores high pressure center. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. The exception will be near and to the west of the Yucatan Peninsula where fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours through the middle of the next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow, that is surrounded by comparatively drier air in subsidence, covers the area from Haiti eastward. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. The broad subtropical ridge that is to the north of the Caribbean Sea, and lower pressures in northern South America, support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and sea heights that range from 7 feet to 9 feet in the south central sections and in parts of the SW Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds are in the Windward Passage. Fresh to locally strong winds are in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds cover the rest of the area, particularly in the lee of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. The sea heights range from 3 feet to 6 feet in the NW and eastern Caribbean Sea, and they range from 4 feet to 6 feet of the central and SW Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, between 74W in Colombia, and beyond southern Costa Rica into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 360 nm to the south of the monsoon trough from Colombia westward. A strong Atlantic Ocean ridge against lower pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea will sustain fresh to strong winds in the south central part of the basin through early Sun, then moderate to fresh winds will prevail through mid-week. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds and slight to moderate seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras much of the forecast period while moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are forecast just E of the Leeward Islands through Tue. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough passes from a 30N74W Atlantic Ocean upper level cyclonic circulation center, beyon the central sections of the Florida west coast. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 25N northward from 70W westward. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 20N northward. A surface ridge is along a 1027 mb high pressure center that is near 33N58W, to 33N68W, beyond the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A surface trough is along 63W/64W from 20N to 25N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 360 nm to the east of the surface trough, and within 510 nm to the west of the surface trough. Light to gentle winds are from 27N northward between 40W and 81W, and from 13N southward from 54W eastward. Moderate to fresh easterly winds, and sea heights that range from 4 feet to 8 feet, cover the rest of the waters. The comparatively highest sea heights are from 21N to 26N between 36W and 41W. The Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic Ocean forecast waters through the forecast period, leading to fresh to strong easterly winds north of Hispaniola and the approaches to the Windward Passage during the night hours. A surface trough, currently located just NE of Puerto Rico, will continue to move westward across the region tonight, likely reaching the central Bahamas on Mon, and approaching South Florida on Tue. Some increase in winds and seas are expected in the wake of the trough. $$ mt