000 AXNT20 KNHC 221042 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jul 22 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Ocean near the Canary Islands: A strong pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower pressure across N Africa is continue to support gust to gale force NNE winds in the region of the Canary Islands. A recent altimeter pass show seas of 8 to 9 ft in the area. Model guidance indicate these conditions will continue through tonight or early Sat. Please, read the METEO-FRANCE High Seas Forecast, at http://weather.gmdss.org/II.html, for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 04N to 18N with axis near 40W, moving westward at 5 to 10 knots. Saharan dry air in the wave environment is limiting the convection to the southern portion of the wave embedded in the monsoon trough. A tropical wave extends S of 19N with axis near 74W, moving westward at 15 knots. Strong wind shear in the central Caribbean is limiting convection to isolated showers in the Windward Passage. A tropical wave extends S of 18N with axis near 87W, moving westward about 5 to 10 knots. Upper-level diffluent flow and deep layer moisture support scattered heavy showers and tstms across the Nicaragua and Honduras offshore waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Senegal near 13N17W to a 1011 mb low pressure center near 12N32W to 06N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 14N between 14W and 28W, and from 05N to 09N between 29W and 44W. GULF OF MEXICO... The Atlantic Bermuda-Azores High continues to extend a ridge SW across Florida into the the eastern Gulf, which is providing light to gentle variable winds mainly E of 88W with seas to 2 ft. With lower pressure along Mexico, a tighter pressure gradient support gentle to moderate return flow and seas to 3 ft W of 88W. For the forecast, model guidance indicate the aforementioned pattern and conditions will continue through early next week, except for the Yucatan peninsula adjacent waters where a thermal trough will induce fresh NE to E winds during the late afternoon and night hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... The Bermuda-Azores High located N of the area combined with lower pressure in the region between Colombia and Panama continue to support fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft in the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean, and fresh trade winds elsewhere except the NW basin where mainly moderate easterlies are observed. A tropical wave moving across the central Caribbean, interacting with the monsoon trough, supports numerous heavy showers and tstms in the offshore waters between Colombia and Panama. A second tropical wave moving across Central America support scattered heavy showers and tstms across the Nicaragua and Honduras offshore waters. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area extending to the northern Caribbean will continue to fresh to strong winds and moderate seas in the central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Sat night. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the region the remaining forecast period. Otherwise, fresh to strong NE winds are forecast in the Windward Passage Sat night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for information about the near-gale to gale force winds that are impacting the waters that are near the Canary Islands. Surface ridging associated with the Bermuda-Azores High continue to be the dominant feature in the subtropical Atlantic waters. This is supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds S of 26N in the SW N Atlantic waters and across the central Atlantic while a tighter pressure gradient against northern Africa support stronger winds in the eastern subtropical waters. Seas are moderate in the central and SW basin. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are off the northern coast of Hispaniola being supported by middle to upper level diffluent flow and deep layer moisture. For the forecast W of 55W, the Bermuda-Azores High will continue to dominate the Atlantic forecast waters through the forecast period. The pressure gradient between this high pressure system and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong easterly winds just north of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, nightly through the weekend. Otherwise, moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected through Tue night S of 28N. $$ Ramos