000 AXNT20 KNHC 190554 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jul 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 21W from just northeast of the Cabo Verde Islands at 20N southward, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 20W and 26W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 44W from 20N southward, and moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated thunderstorms are occurring from 11N to 13N between 40W and 50W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from south of Haiti at 17N southward to northern Colombia, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near the Panama-Colombia border, northwestern Venezuela and nearby waters. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from east of Cozumel Island southward across Honduras and Nicaragua into the East Pacific Ocean, and moving W near 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present in the Gulf of Honduras and near the east Nicaragua coast. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of Mauritania near Nouakchott across 12N25W to 06N33W. Scattered showers are found north of the trough over the Cabo Verde Islands from 12N to 18N between 20W and 26W. Similar conditions are also noted to the south from 07N to 12N between the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast and 20W, and to the southwest from 05N to 07N between 26W and 32W. An ITCZ extends from 06N32W across 04N37W to 04N44W, then from 06N47W to near the Guyana-Suriname border at 06N57W. Scattered showers are seen up to 80 nm along either side of both ITCZ segments. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is coupling with divergent flow aloft to trigger scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending west-southwestward from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico continues to dominate much of the Gulf. Moderate NE to E winds with 3 to 4 ft seas are present offshore from the northern Yucatan Peninsula and eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region into the weekend. Under this weather pattern, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the Yucatan Peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours due to local effects. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Bermuda and Azores Highs continue to channel NE to ENE trades across the entire Caribbean Sea. Convergent trades are generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Haiti and waters between southeastern Cuba and Jamaica. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for additional weather in the Caribbean Basin. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are impacting the south-central basin, just north of Colombia. Gentle easterly winds with seas at 2 to 5 ft exist for the northwestern basin near the Island of the Youth, and along the coast of Panama. Moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail for the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda/Azores Highs and the Colombian/Panamanian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected across the waters near the Lesser Antilles through late this week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections for weather in the Atlantic Basin. The Bermuda/Azores Highs continue to provide light to gentle winds and 3 to 4 ft seas north of 24N between 35W and 70W. Farther west, gentle to moderate SE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are evident north of 24N between 70W and the Georgia/Florida coast. To the south, moderate to fresh NE to ENE trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft are seen from 10N to 24N between 32W and the Lesser Antilles/70W. For the eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh with locally strong NNE trades and 7 to 10 ft seas are found north of 13N between the African coast and 35W, including waters near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands. South of 13N, gentle to moderate with locally fresh monsoonal winds and sea at 5 to 8 ft are noted between the central African coast and 28W. Light to gentle with locally moderate E to SE trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail for the rest of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge associated with the Bermuda/Azores Highs will continue to dominate the forecast area over the next several days. The pressure gradient between the ridge and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean will support pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds during the nights just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage into Wed. As the high moves east a bit tonight, fresh to locally strong SW winds will develop offshore northern Florida through Tue afternoon. $$ Chan