000 AXNT20 KNHC 182347 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Tue Jul 19 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2340 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 06N to 20N with axis near 20W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 13W and 25W. A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 41W, moving W at 10-15 kt. No convection is associated with this wave. A tropical wave extends S of 18N with axis near 72W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered to isolated showers are in the NW Colombia and Gulf of Venezuela offshore waters. A tropical wave extends S of 18N with axis near 84W, moving W at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring inland and in the Gulf of Honduras as well as across northern Nicaragua. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic Ocean along the coast of Mauritania from 19N16W to 10N27W to 07N32W. The ITCZ extends from 07N32W to 06N41W, then continues W of a tropical wave from 06N44W to 07N58W. For information on convection, see the tropical waves section. GULF OF MEXICO... The main feature across the basin continue to be a weak surface ridge that is providing light to gentle variable winds basin-wide, except along the northern gulf coastal waters where moderate southerlies are being reported. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are also in the vicinity of the Yucatan peninsula associated with a surface trough that is generating scattered heavy showers inland. Seas continue to be in the 1-2 ft range basin-wide. For the forecast, surface ridging will continue to dominate the Gulf region this week. Under this weather pattern, gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong surface ridge continues in place N of the area extending to the northern Caribbean, which is supporting moderate to fresh winds in the eastern and northwest basin. In the central basin, the passage of a tropical wave and a low pressure embedded in the E Pacific monsoon trough tighten the pressure gradient in that region and support fresh to strong winds also extending across the Windward passage. Seas in the central and southwest Caribbean range between 8 to 10 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the passage of the tropical waves will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through mid-week. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected across the waters near the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period. ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Bermuda/Azores high continue to dominate the southwest, central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters, which continue to support moderate east winds S of 25N in the central and western portions of the basin where seas range between 5 to 6 ft. In the eastern subtropical Atlantic, a tighter pressure gradient against lower pressure across northern Africa, continue to support fresh to strong NE winds N of 14N and E of 33W with seas to 10 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the forecast region over the next several days. The pressure gradient between the ridge and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean will support pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, tonight and Tue night. Otherwise, the ridge will slightly move eastward tonight and fresh SW winds will develop offshore Florida, north of the Bahamas through Tue afternoon. $$ Ramos