000 AXNT20 KNHC 172336 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Jul 18 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 37W, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 13N between 33W and 46W. A tropical wave is S of 17N with axis near 65W, moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is S of 16N between 62W and 72W. A tropical wave S of 19N with axis near 77W, moving W at 20 kt. Isolated showers are S of 19N between 73W and 83W. A tropical wave is S of 18N with axis near 85W, moving W at 15 kt. Isolated showers associated with this wave are across the NW Caribbean with scattered moderate convection being observed over Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mauritania near 16N16W to 11N23W to 08N42W. The ITCZ continues from 08N42W to 08N51W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N-11N between 11W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails over the basin, anchored by a 1016 mb high pressure near 28N92W. The basin is experiencing light to gentle varaible wind and 1 to 2 ft seas, except along the Yucatan peninsula where moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds are observed. Otherwise, deep layer moisture inflow from the Caribbean into the basin and a surface trough support isolated showers over the eastern half of the gulf. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region this week. Under this weather pattern, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail, except near and to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula where moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse each night into the early morning hours due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea, where seas are 6-8 ft. Gentle SE winds are occurring in the NW basin, with 1 to 3 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian/Panamanian low will lead to fresh to strong winds in the south-central Caribbean into the middle of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level diffluent pattern and ample atmospheric moisture are sustaining numerous moderate isolated strong convection north of 25N between 77W and the east coast of Florida. Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are noted elsewhere north of 23N and west of 71.5W. The remainder of the Atlantic is free of significant precipitation areas. Moderate S winds prevail north of 25N and west of 70W, except stronger from 27N-29N between 78.5W-80.5W, where strong convection prevails. Fresh SE winds prevail south of 25N and west of 70W, except for strong E winds between the N coast of Hispaniola and the Turks and Caicos Islands. An east-west oriented subtropical ridge is along 32N between 35W- 70W. As a result, gentle to moderate trades prevail north of 25N along with seas of 3-5 ft. A recent ASCAT satellite data pass shows moderate to fresh NE-E trades from the ITCZ to 24N between 35W-62W, where seas are 5-7 ft. In the far E Atlantic off the coast of Western Sahara, fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 7-9 ft are occurring. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the region west of 55W early this week. The pressure gradient between the southern periphery of the ridge and tropical waves moving across the Caribbean Sea will support fresh to locally strong easterly winds just off of Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, including the approaches to the Windward Passage, through Mon night. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected across the waters E of the Lesser Antilles through Wed. In the eastern Atlantic, strong N to NE winds will continue from 18N-28N between 25W and the coast of Africa through Mon. $$ Ramos